A new report from Guidehouse Insights examines light duty (LD) EV sales and populations, providing forecasts for three scenarios—conservative, base, and aggressive—through 2030.
Recent growth in the LD EV market coupled with strong hybrid EV (HEV)
sales growth led to positive uptake in the EV market in 2019—albeit with
some areas of the market slowing, such as plug-in EV (PEV) sales in
North America. More recently, the introduction of several new SUV and
crossover PEV models in North America as well as additional mild-hybrid
vehicles coming to market in Europe is expected to propel growth. The
electric pickup truck market will likely continue increasing PEV sales
in North America as these models come to market in 2021 and beyond. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @WeAreGHInsights, EVs are expected to account for more than 20% of global light duty vehicle sales by 2030.
“Further into the future, continuous improvements to vehicle technology
economics, including battery innovations and government transportation
policies that incentivize adoption of low emission vehicles and low
carbon fuels, are anticipated to propel sales growth,” says Raquel Soat,
research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “Growing interest in carbon
pricing and increased charging infrastructure investments are expected
to also improve PEV economics.”
Despite positive sales growth, challenges remain for the EV market.
According to the report, a lack of consumer awareness and a need for
more charging infrastructure are significant barriers for LD vehicle
electrification. Although awareness is increasing, consumers remain
largely unaware of charging and powertrain technologies, the costs
associated with EVs (and how they differ from conventional powertrain
costs), and the availability of incentives.
The report, Light Duty Vehicle Electrification Overview,
provides an outlook on LD EV sales and populations to 2030 and includes
passenger cars and light trucks with the following powertrains: HEVs,
plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), battery EVs (BEVs), and fuel cell EVs
(FCVs). Forecasts are produced for three scenarios distinguished by
varying assumptions (conservative, base, and aggressive) regarding
future vehicle component costs, government incentives, and vehicle
availability. An executive summary of the report is available for free
download on the Guidehouse Insights website.
