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Coffee could predict the Oscars

Specialist coffee producer Cafely has analysed the presence of coffee in movies, and offers a unique analysis – including a prediction for Best Movie winner.

Cafely has found that coffee is present in 33% of all Oscar-winning films, highlighting its importance in the film industry. In 2022, coffee made the most frequent appearances in Oscar-winning films, with a total of 1202 times. However, despite this high number, only 22.2% of Oscar-winning films featured coffee, which is lower compared to years with fewer coffee appearances. In 2011, coffee was featured in 94% of Oscar winners, the highest percentage among the years examined. The table below shows the breakdown of coffee scenes in Oscar-winning films from 2002 to 2022:

To calculate the impact of coffee scenes on a film’s chances of winning an Oscar, we applied the Linear Regression model. We used two pieces of data:

We also applied the same method to determine the effect of specific coffee brands on a film’s chances of winning an Oscar. The top 10 coffee brands with the strongest impact are listed above. Starbucks has the highest impact on the chances of a movie winning an award. A movie can have 20.3% more chances to win an Oscar if it has one more scene featuring Starbucks. Folgers and Hilltop are close behind, with 19.3% and 18.1%, respectively.

We used the Logistics Regression model to predict if a Best Picture nominee would win based on the number of coffee scenes in the film. Our data input into the model was:

Using Logistics Regression, we will have a threshold, which we can deem an “ideal” number of coffee scenes a film should have to win an Oscar. In this case:

The closer the number of coffee scenes is to the threshold, the higher the probability of winning Best Picture. With that in mind, we have:

And now, for the grand espresso revelation! Drumroll, please… The Oscar for Best Picture, as per our caffeinated crystal ball, is none other than Killers of the Flower Moon! Mark your calendars for 10 March, folks. Will our coffee-powered prophecy percolate to perfection, or will it need a bit more brewing? Stay tuned to find out if our prediction is as spot-on as a perfectly poured latte!

Our Thoughts

In conclusion, while achieving Oscar success involves multiple factors, the presence of coffee in films may be a more significant predictor than previously thought. So, as we await the envelope’s opening, let’s remember: sometimes, the best predictor of success might just be a simple cup of coffee.

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