Aviation to add 45,900 aircraft in 20 years

An independent forecast reveals that 45,900 aircraft are predicted to be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of US$3.3-trillion, as airlines continue to invest in newer and more sustainable aircraft.

The data was provided by aviation analytics company Cirium in its annual Fleet Forecast, which lays out the future outlook of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market.

The independent forecast, now in its twelfth year, reveals that 45,900 aircraft are predicted to be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of $3.3 trillion USD, as airlines continue to invest in newer and more sustainable aircraft.

This year’s forecast by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, comes as the aviation industry continues to face supply chain issues delaying aircraft deliveries, with the report projecting 5% fewer deliveries between 2024-2027 due to a shortage of components (compared to 2023 data).

Data also reveals that during Q4 2024, a total of 26,100 aircraft are currently in service, which is up 5% on January 2020 when the pandemic first took hold, showing the industry’s strong growth trajectory and recovery.

This rise has been driven by the delivery and operation of single-aisle aircraft (up 13%), with the number of twin-aisle aircraft sitting 3% below pre-pandemic levels. The number of active regional jets also remains 8% down on pre-pandemic levels, with turboprops having seen the largest drop of 13%.

Looking ahead to the next 20 years, Cirium’s Fleet Forecast also reveals that of the 45,900 new aircraft set to be delivered between 2024 and 2043, some 98% will be passenger aircraft, as the firm predicts that capacity (ASKs) will grow at 4.4% per year*.

Despite this, an estimated 3,500 freighters are expected to be delivered in the next 20 years, with the industry’s cargo fleet projected to grow 2.6% per year. This majority (70%) of these will be through passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions rather than new deliveries, as airlines look to make the most of the current spike in demand.

Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft OEMs, delivering an estimated 84% of aircraft between them, with this figure projected to rise to 90% by value in 2043, while COMAC is forecast to take a 6% share of demand. There is some $180-billion of demand for other OEMs (ATR, Embraer, etc), in addition to potential new programmes within the next 20 years.

Asia as a whole will continue to be the leading region for aircraft growth, taking some 45% of deliveries over the next 20 years, of which China will contribute some 20% on its own, almost reaching the North American total.

This growth is also compounded by the rise of commercial aviation within India, which is forecast to see the country’s passenger aircraft numbers increase from 720 at the end of 2023, to more than 3,800 over the next 20 years. The country is covered separately in the report for the first time.

Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “As we continue to enter the next cycle of growth for the aviation industry, our new Fleet Forecast illustrates the continued demand for new aircraft, as airlines look to renew and expand their fleets.

“However, it is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing will continue to cause delays for OEMs, leading to uncertain delivery schedules for many airlines, and this has been factored into our forecast.

“With markets like India set for significant growth, it is clear that the next 20 years will be increasingly competitive for manufacturers, with airlines continuing to invest in their fleets.

“The forecast also illustrates the challenge of sustainability and net-zero as fleet growth is balanced with new aircraft efficiency to drive reductions in unit emissions.”

As part of the report, Cirium has also revealed that single-aisle are projected to lead the industry’s growth over the next 20 years, with a projected 3.9% annual growth rate, exceeding the 3.3% for twin-aisles, as long-haul traffic continues to see slower growth post-pandemic. Regional aircraft are predicted to rise more modestly at an overall rate of 0.8% per year.

To download an executive summary of the Cirium Fleet Forecast, [click here]