World smartphone growth returns, via emerging markets

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 6.2% year-over-year in 2024 to 1.24 billion units, according to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. This strong growth follows two years of steep declines and is fueled by pent-up demand for device upgrades. While 2024 marks a strong rebound, growth is expected to slow to low single digits from 2025 onward, with a 2.6% CAGR (2023-2028). Contributing factors include increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and headwinds from rapidly growing used smartphone market.

“While GenAI continues to be a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is yet to impact demand significantly and drive early upgrades,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “While we continue to believe GenAI will revolutionise the user experience in the years to come, more investments are needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce a ‘must have’ feature that will rush consumers to the store and create that super cycle which everyone is waiting for. For now, we expect GenAI smartphones will take their place in premium flagship devices and keep moving down in price tiers to rapidly grow to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.”

Rapid Android growth of 7.6% year-over-year focused in APeJC, Latin America, Middle East and Africa and China, primarily in low end devices, is pivotal to the 6.2% growth this year. In contrast, iOS is expected to grow a modest 0.4% in 2024. Despite record breaking performance in emerging markets like India, Apple faces challenges in large markets like China, US and Europe. Looking ahead to 2025, The tides will turn as iOS is expected to grow by 3.1% year-over-year, outpacing Android’s forecasted 1.7% growth over the same period.

“New foldable phone models continue to grab headlines despite the low volumes in the market,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “In Q3, foldables declined by 7.4%, even as most of the world’s prominent vendors launched new models. Still foldables will grow 10.5% in 2024 and maintain a double-digit growth through 2028 with a five-year CAGR of 15.9%. However, the pace of growth is slowing down as Chinese vendors (who are driving this segment) are realigning focus and investments towards GenAI smartphones. Durability concerns and lack of unique use cases are also dampening growth.”