A recent report has revealed that the widespread adoption of autonomous cars and taxis could lead to a revolutionary transformation of cities.
Widespread urban adoption of self-driving vehicles (SDVs) and “robo-taxis,” or self-driving taxis, could result in a 60% drop in the number of cars on city streets, an 80% or greater decrease in tailpipe emissions, and 90% fewer road accidents, according to a new report by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) prepared in collaboration with the World Economic Forum.
Self-Driving Vehicles, Robo-Taxis, and the Urban Mobility Revolution, released today, builds on earlier research by BCG and the World Economic Forum, including a survey of more than 5,500 consumers in ten countries—the largest global survey on SDVs to date. The report examines four potential scenarios for SDVs in an urban context and describes the possible impact of each one. While broad consumer adoption of SDVs—to which BCG’s research shows there are few barriers—would by itself lead to significant disruption, the real revolution in urban mobility will come with widespread adoption of robo-taxis.
“There is a compelling case to be made for SDVs in cities,” said Nikolaus Lang, a BCG senior partner and report coauthor. “Ride-shared, electric robo-taxis can substantially transform and improve urban transportation and, by direct extension, livability, by providing more people with easier access to mobility, making streets safer, and freeing up space no longer needed for parking. The major players—industry, consumers, and policymakers—are excited and engaged.”
Some 58% of consumers in cities around the world are open to trying out SDVs. Willingness is highest among younger consumers: 63% of those aged 29 or younger are willing to ride in a fully self-driving car, compared with 46% of consumers aged 51 or older.
Acceptance of SDVs is highest in emerging markets. In India, for example, willingness is 85%, while consumers in Japan and the Netherlands are most reluctant (36% and 41%, respectively). Consumers cite the convenience of parking assistance and an increase in productivity while traveling as the top two reasons for interest in SDVs. When asked who should produce SDVs, almost 50% of respondents look to traditional-car manufacturers. Trust in automakers is highest in France, Germany, and Japan; it is weaker in India, the US, and China, where tech companies have high visibility.
Although few consumers have even seen an SDV, their expectations for how SDVs will differ from traditional cars are quite specific. More than 35% expect SDVs to be hybrid vehicles, and another 29% anticipate that they will be electric.
Many consumers are willing to pay a premium of $5,000 or more for a fully self-driving car. In France, India, and Japan, every second consumer is ready to pay more for an SDV. This willingness to pay extra is driven by an economic logic that balances the incremental cost against potential cost savings in other areas, such as lower parking fees, fuel savings, and even lower housing costs if it becomes more convenient to live farther from the more expensive city core.
The research also involved in-depth interviews with 25 urban policymakers in 12 cities. Some 60% of these policymakers expect that by 2025, at least one city will have banned traditional-car ownership, partly as a result of robo-taxi fleets. Another 24% believe that this will happen by 2030. In terms of operating robo-taxi fleets, policymakers clearly see the private sector in the lead and envision a multiplayer setup rather than a monopolistic structure. Numerous trials involving SDVs are already underway in cities as diverse as Singapore, London, and Gothenburg. Gothenburg is currently planning to launch a pilot of 100 SDVs on its ring road in 2017.
In addition to conducting research with consumers and city policymakers, BCG and the World Economic Forum developed four comprehensive scenarios—based on autonomous technology, ride sharing, and electrification—for the city of the future. Here are the scenarios, in order of potential impact:
The Premium Car That Drives Itself. SDVs complement the existing mobility landscape as high-end offerings. This results in a small reduction (about 1%) in the number of vehicles on the streets through limited sharing of self-driving vehicles and fewer accidents—a drop of almost 20%—because SDVs, without human error as a risk factor, are much safer.
SDVs Rule the Streets. In this scenario, SDVs replace most traditional cars but are still primarily privately owned. One in ten SDVs is shared by multiple individuals, and the total number of cars in the city falls by 8%. The number of accidents drops by 55%, and there is a 5% increase in freed-up parking space.
Robo-Taxis Take Over. Robo-taxis are the primary mobility option in the city. The biggest change is a nearly 50% decrease in the number of cars as consumers abandon privately owned vehicles for shared robo-taxis. There are almost 90% fewer accidents, and nearly 40% of parking space is freed up.
The Ridesharing Revolution. Shared robo-taxis are the main mobility mode. Every self-driving taxi now averages 2 passengers instead of the 1.2 assumed to be the average occupancy previously. Ridesharing frees up more parking space (54%) and further lowers the number of cars needed to provide the same level of mobility to the population (59%). Accidents decrease by 87%.
“No single scenario will play out exactly as described, but our analysis makes it clear that the potential benefits for society are huge if SDVs are combined with ride sharing and electrification,” said Michael Rüßmann, a BCG senior partner and report coauthor. “A power train shift from internal-combustion to electric engines is essential if cities want to cut tailpipe emissions, and ride sharing in urban areas is required to reduce the number of vehicles that are on the streets at any given time. Autonomous capabilities are the key to big improvements in road safety. These three factors—ride sharing, autonomous driving, and electrification—reinforce each other to facilitate fast adoption.”
Win a Poster Heater with Gadget and Takealot.com
This winter Gadget and Takealot.com are giving away three Poster Heaters, which look like posters but become heaters when you plug them in.
Three Gadget readers will each win a unit, valued at R550 each. To enter, follow @GadgetZA and @Takealot on Twitter and tell us on the @GadgetZA account how many Watts the heater consumes.
What’s the big deal about these heaters? Many of us are struggling to keep the balance between soaring electricity costs and the need to keep warm this winter.
However, the recently launched Poster Heater by EasyHeat and distributed in South Africa by Takealot.com is not only one of the most cost effective electric heaters currently on the market, it is also easy to setup and use.
As the name indicates, it is a poster similar to one you would hang on a wall. But, plug it in and it turns into a 300 Watt heater. The Poster Heater isn’t designed to heat hallways or large rooms, but rather smaller ones like a bedroom or a baby’s nursery or a dressing room.
It uses radiant heating, which means that it heats up in a couple of minutes and the heat is directed at the objects or people around it, quickly taking the chill out of the air and providing a comfortable ambient temperature.
The other advantage of radiant heating is that it doesn’t dry out the air like infrared or gas heaters. Users also don’t have to worry about their children or pets getting too close to it because, even though it gets hot, it can be touched.
To enter the competition follow the steps below:
Competition entry details:
3. The competition closes on 31 July 2018.
4. Winners will be notified via Twitter on 1 August and Takealot.com will be in touch to organise delivery.
5. The competition is only open to South African residents.
Deezer to host Hotstix’s Mandela tribute playlist
Deezer is celebrating Nelson Mandela on the centenary of his birthday by hosting a tribute playlist created by music legend Sipho “Hotstix” Mabuse.
Mabuse, a legendary figure in African music, first rose to prominence in the 1970s with his band Harari and later developed a name for himself as a solo artist. One of his best known songs was the global hit BurnOut in the 1980s.
The playlist takes the listener on a captivating musical journey through the life of Nelson Mandela. It was compiled by Mabuse, who consulted with Mandela’s family and friends to ensure that the music would be relevant and accurate. The playlist also features commentary by Mabuse, which was recorded in his Soweto home.
“I have tried to tell the story of the music that Madiba loved,” says Mabuse. “The Playlist excludes the time in prison obviously, as Madiba would not have had exposure to music in that time. We have focused on the music we know he loved before and after that period. This recording was really an emotional journey for me, but an incredible opportunity to document these memories.”
The playlist features the music the young Mandela loved, such as The Manhattan Brothers, Solomon Linda, Brenda Fassie and Miriam Makeba. It includes struggle songs from Chicco, Johnny Clegg, Hugh Masekela and Yvonne Chaka Chaka. The playlist also includes Mandela by Zahara, one of the younger artists who caught Madiba’s ear.
Mabuse also offers stories of his own songs, such as Shikisha, a song greatly beloved by the former President.
“I was delighted to share my thoughts and hope the listeners enjoyed the musical journey,” says Mabuse. “Madiba did enjoy music immensely and we all have a purpose wherever we are in the world to celebrate culture and to learn from different cultures and music forms and styles.”
This playlist was inspired by the Nelson Mandela 100 campaign, calling on corporates and individuals to act as sources of inspiration and engage in conversation and action.