As robots migrate from science fiction to the real world, their image as killers has also migrated – but this time the fear is that they will kill off our jobs. The evidence, however, suggests that their effect will be the exact opposite of these fears.
One can go all the way back to the dawn of the industrial revolution and the first manufacturing machine: the spinning jenny, which began the automation of weaving. There is one small statistic from that revolution that is seldom mentioned, says Tom Raftery, global vice president and futurist for software giants SAP.
“The spinning jenny was the first mechancial loom,” he said during the recent Saphila conference at Sun City, where SAP users and developers network and share information. “There were 7900 spinners and loomers in the United Kingdom at the time, in 1760. They had riots, but by 1790 the number of spinners and weavers rose to 320,000, because spinning jennies could make yarn cheaper and better quality than the manual process.”
In fact, the riots were provoked not by the fear of machines taking away jobs, as myth has it, but rather because they brought the price of cotton and cloth crashing down. But that, too, resulted in a boom rather than the market collapsing, as had been feared.
“Because of increased demand as more people could afford to buy manufactured clothes, economies of scale kicked in, the quality kept increasing, and they needed supply chains to supply the factories. For that they needed distribution mechanisms, and that led to more roads, railways, and ultimately the industrial revolution.”
In the same way, it is anticipated that, rather than jobs disappearing as a result of the widespread advent of robots, we will see a process called labour switching.
Raftery quotes a study by Deloitte, which found that, as organisations embrace and adopt robotics and AI, they are finding that virtually every job can be redesigned, thus creating new categories of work.
Deloitte’s 2019 Global Human Capital Trends report asked, “Are jobs going away due to technology?”
The answer was mixed but reassuring: “While some may be eliminated, our view is that many more are changing… only 13 percent believe automation will eliminate a significant number of positions, far different from our findings on this score only a few years ago.”
The value of automation and AI, Deloitte said, “lies not in the ability to replace human labor with machines, but in augmenting the workforce and enabling human work to be reframed in terms of problem-solving and the ability to create new knowledge”.
Raftery pointed to some unexpected results of the growing number of skilled jobs and, by extension, better-paid young people.
“Employment in professional services has gone way up, as have numbers of bar staff, and the number of hairdressers – as we have more money to enjoy ourselves, as we have more money to improve our appearance.
“New jobs are being created by technology all the time. How many of your job titles existed 5 years ago, 10, 15? More than 60% of the global workforce in 1900 was employed in agriculture and manufacture. Today it is 11%, and we don’t have vast unemployment in those areas. Robots won’t take our jobs, they will be creating jobs.”
Raftery pointed to five industries that will be dramatically affected by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, big data, robotics, and cloud computing. These make up the so-called fourth industrial revolution, a phrase commonly bandied about in South African government circles, but with little awareness of what it truly represents.
In healthcare, manufacturing, energy, transportation, and food production, he said, we can expect to see a decimation of existing jobs – a prospect that the Government will find somewhat difficult to sell to the labour unions. However, each of these sectors will see a massive demand for new jobs and skills. Already, the cybersecurity industry, which in effect has to secure the data of every one of these sectors, is reporting a desperate shortage of skills, both in South Africa and globally.
Manufacturing, seemingly the most boring of all industries, will present us with the most fascinating opportunities and challenges.
Said Raftery, “We are seeing a move to 3D printing, to mass customisation, which is really product-as-a-service. Fiat is building a modular electric car that one can endlessly customise, down to the battery pack. You can even order an extra 500km of range for the weekend, getting a more expensive battery just for the weekend when you need it.”
United Parcel Service, an American delivery and supply chain management company, has grasped one of the big opportunities offered by 3D printing of products on demand.
“At present UPS has a huge business storing parts for customers,” said Raftery. “They hold US$1.8-trillion worth of customer stock in their warehouses. Now they’ve partnered with SAP to launch a spare parts 3D printing business. They’re going through a certification process with customers to sign off that their 3D printed parts are as good as the originals. Then the products will be digitised and put in digital warehouse and can be sent anywhere in world.”
Some of the world’s biggest technology manufacturers are getting in on the act.
Last week, HP Inc formally opened the doors of a massive new 3D Printing and Digital Manufacturing Centre of Excellence in Barcelona. It provides a large-scale factory environment to collaborate with customers and partners on digital manufacturing technologies.
During our visit to the Centre earlier this year, Nick Lazaridis, president of HP for Europe, Middle East and Africa, told us that many companies made the mistake of thinking of the industry in terms of sales of printers and materials.
“If you had a total monopoly of 3D printing, the market would be worth around $40-billion. But if you look at the industry that this is going to disrupt, namely manufacturing, that’s a $12-trillion industry.”
As with Raftery, however, he predicted that 3D printing will have a massive impact on distribution, warehousing and energy needs.
“This smartphone or bottle is being manufactured in a low-cost country. But you have to build factories, manufacture the products, warehouse them, put them on planes and boats, warehouse them again, put them on trucks again, before they arrive on the shelves. That leaves behind a massive carbon footprint.
“When you talk 3D printing, you can design in Spain or South Africa, you can manufacture on demand in South Africa, and deliver in 24 hours because it is printed in a warehouse a few blocks from where you live. You don’t build a hundred thousand units hoping to sell them; you build on demand.”
Obviously, robots, 3D printing and every other expression of the fourth industrial revolution will kill off jobs. But equally obviously, the jobs they create, in turn, will not only be better jobs, they will also be better for our planet.
- Arthur Goldstuck is founder of World Wide Worx and editor-in-chief of Gadget.co.za. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram on @art2gee
Cloud makes business magic
A cloud summit conference last week illustrated the dramatic way the cloud can transform an organisation’s capacity.
What do the movies have in common with banks? Aside from the billions of rands and dollars that flow through both industries, they seem worlds apart. Yet, in the world of cloud computing, they are suddenly close neighbours.
It’s not just that both now tend to host their services in the cloud, accessible from any connected device anywhere in the world. Now, they can take advantage of the lessons, systems and strategies that each has adopted in the cloud.
One of the best-known examples of leveraging the cloud for global impact is Netflix, which hosts its content in the data centres of Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world’s largest cloud computing service. Along with videos and movies, it also uses applies regional licensing frameworks via this cloud platform, meaning it can instantly launch new services and videos worldwide that comply with local regulations in every country.
At last week’s AWS Summit in Cape Town, it became clear just how powerful the cloud can be for South African organisations. One of South Africa’s oldest insurance companies, one of the country’s largest universities and the country’s newest bank all took to the stage to share case studies of how the cloud had transformed their operations.
That is probably all that Old Mutual, the University of Pretoria and TymeBank have in common, but they slotted in neatly to a bigger story: the cloud is available to any institution or business, large or small, old or new. This is the underlying secret to the astonishing growth of TymeBank, South Africa’s first fully digital bank, and the first entity to receive a banking license in this country in 19 years.
Launched earlier this year, it currently brings 100,000 new customers on board every month. To achieve this, it uses no less than 54 distinct services available on the AWS platform, says Dieter Botha, chief information officer of the bank.
“We’ve got so many services in the ecosystem. From a security point of view, every single one of our customers’ conversations with banks comes into the AWS world via a security layer, a content delivery network, web application firewall and AWS’s Advanced Shield, so we are pretty resilient from cyber attacks. The primary purpose is to make sure our face to the world is protected from attack.”
The most fascinating aspect of their ability to leverage the AWS cloud, however, was the fact that they were able to piggyback on processes and systems that streaming video giant Netflix had created for its own services in the cloud.
“They’ve got what we call the Netflix stack, a set of tools they put together that makes it easier to manage microservices, small elements of computer processes that run in what are called containers.”
Netflix built its own application containers, on top of an open-source platform, meaning that anyone could use and adapt the systems it had developed. However, that was only a starting point while TymeBank was pulling itself up by its own bootstraps.
“This is where we say, if you take a step back, this stuff is very cool, but it translates into an element of risk. From a risk point of view, rather than using that scaffolding, we said let’s take our microservices container, and get an animal like AWS to run it for us. So we’re effectively replacing the Netflix stack with AWS and its native services.
“Now our techies can just focus on the code inside our operations rather than build the heavy scaffolding we had to worry about. The documentation is so good on AWS, because they have real technical gurus who understand the systems, that it de-risks our services.”
Netflix wasn’t the only everyday consumer service that played its part on building TymeBank. It turns out that many of the global giants have made their systems and learnings available to anyone on the world. The bank turned to a product from none other than Facebook to help build its Web presence.
As TymeBank refines its services and migrates deeper and deeper into the Amazon cloud, it has also been able to cut costs dramatically.
“We found as we’ve grown and become more comfortable in that cloud and more skilled in the use of the cloud, we began consuming more native services, meaning they are designed to run in the cloud. That’s a really big deal for us. That’s when you see the benefits of the cloud ecosystem. One native service can trigger another, because they talk to each other well.
“This includes a set of services that help you manage your life and bills in the cloud. People forget about costs. Now we can tag a lot of our services in the AWS cloud to understand exactly what is driving cost points, and we are able to manage costs right down to the level of the techies.
“Traditionally, if you sign a contract with a big supplier, it gets filed away, and the techies don’t even know what is driving costs. By tagging services in the cloud, you’re giving cost knowledge to your techies, and it’s in their power to push it up and down. You give them the power to understand costs and manage them. That’s never been possible before.”
This partly explains why TymeBank is able to bring the monthly cost of having a bank account to exactly zero. It is only when one starts using its services that banking fees kick in.
However, the fact that a 174-year-old insurance company like Old Mutual and a 156-year-old like Standard Bank are also rapidly migrating to the AWS platform is a clear message that the cloud is not just for newcomers.
Both institutions began offering their services in the middle of the 18th century, when the concept of technology barely existed. Yet, the constant evolution and falling price of cutting-edge tech like cloud computing has meant they can not only survive, but even thrive, in the presence of young upstarts like TymeBank.
- Arthur Goldstuck is founder of World Wide Worx and editor-in-chief of Gadget.co.za. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram on @art2gee
Think like a hacker
Ethical hackers play a key role in keeping a company secure.
Relevant cybersecurity isn’t perpetuated exclusively through investment and systems; it is reliant on people and their understanding of the cyber threat.
A leading ethical technology hacker in Europe, Jamie Woodruff, gained access to a well-known financial institution by simply posing as a pizza delivery man. He was quoted as saying that it is the mistakes that people make that are the true threat to the business. That said, it is people like Woodruff who can provide the organisation with the insight required to pre-empt attacks, find hidden loopholes and educate employees.
These ethical hackers know how to play the game of cybersecurity thrones. They understand the methodologies and the mindsets of those who make a living from penetrating business defences unlawfully and use this understanding to reshape security infrastructure and investment.
“The role of the ethical hacker has evolved considerably over the past few years,” says Karien Bornheim, CEO of Footprint Africa Business Solutions (FABS). “In the past, they would be hired by organisations to ensure that their security was capable of withstanding a concerted attack and, in some cases, find out if they had already been breached. Many organisations only discover that they’ve had a breach years after it has taken place. Today, the ethical hacker has added to their arsenal – their skills have evolved and so have the methods they use. Not only are they penetrating the front lines of defence, they are also launching attacks from the inside of the organisation.”
There has been a subtle shift from the slide in and out pen testing of the past when ethical hackers would attack organisations over a period of a few days or weeks. Now, many undertake long-term undercover assignments that embed them into the company. These are the ethical hackers that become part of the culture so they can identify the insider threats that are affecting the organisation, and even identify the source of ongoing security challenges. Many ethical hacker training courses specialise in undercover training into very specific technology skill sets that allow them to find the bigger threats to the organisation, particularly those perpetrated by employees.
The insider threat is a very real problem. According to CA’s Insider Threat 2018 Report, 90% of organisations feel that they are vulnerable to an insider attack, 53% have had confirmed insider attacks, and 27% have seen an increase in frequency. This has sparked significant internal investment into insider threat programmes that focus on deterrence, forensics and user behaviour monitoring.
“Ethical hackers are capable of immersing themselves into the culture of the business. They use this to detect behaviour that could potentially indicate if someone is an insider threat,” says Bornheim. “Their skills allow them to find digital proof of misdeeds and rapidly detect certain system issues or behaviours. Those who take on these roles can spend months or even years at an organisation protecting it both from within and without.”
That said, in spite of their security expertise and experience, many organisations remain reluctant to hire external ethical hackers and grant them access to their information. It’s an understandable concern. Many ethical hackers have moved from the so-called black hat (criminal) side of hacking to the white hat (legal) side and bring with them a suitcase of smart skills that few companies want to see thrown at their cybersecurity walls. However, this discomfort is the precise reason why the business should be paying attention and the bill.
“These individuals do command high salaries but what they offer the organisation in terms of reputational and cost-saving benefits, cannot be understated,” says Bornheim. “Should they discover a bug, a loophole, an existing piece of dangerous code, or any other threat to the company, they can save it millions.”
The average cost to the company, according to IBM’s study – Costs of Data Breaches Increase Expenses for Businesses, is around $US3.86 million for a data breach. This cost has risen since 2016 by 6.4% and will likely increase again over the next 12-24 months. Any company facing that reckoning at the end of a cybersecurity hack from a black hat will suddenly see the bill that comes from a certified white hat like a missed opportunity.
“Certified ethical hackers operate under very strict ethical controls,” concludes Bornheim. “They report any issues or information they find and help the organisation to put more stringent or relevant controls in place. The ethical hacker is ultimately a weapon, one that can be safely wielded by the untrained to defend the organisation against future attacks, to rebuild systems and security platforms, and to uncover insider threats. Their role is as critical to the development of a robust cybersecurity stance as the software, solutions and training that are embedded into the human, machine, server, and system.”