According to the CTA, emerging technologies and the resilience of historically leading categories will drive the U.S. consumer technology industry to a record-breaking $351 billion in retail revenues in 2018.
Unveiled in advance of CES 2018, the latest edition of CTA’s semi-annual industry report, the U.S. Consumer Technology Sales and Forecasts, includes for the first time a projection for consumer spending on music and video streaming services – valued at $19.5 billion in revenue, 35 percent higher than just last year. CTA added streaming services sales – which include internet-enabled services that deliver on-demand or linear video content (e.g., Netflix, Hulu and Sling TV) and on-demand audio content (e.g., Spotify, Pandora or Apple Music) – to better capture the full expanse of the ever evolving and expanding consumer technology market. Excluding the addition of streaming services, total industry revenue would increase by 2.2 percent in 2018.
“Technology is improving our lives in more ways than ever – and consumer enthusiasm is growing just as quickly as companies can bring their innovations to market,” said Gary Shapiro, president and CEO, CTA. “Our forecast incorporates several key economic factors including a strong stock market, continued job growth and stable rules for international trade to forecast these record-setting sales for breakthrough technologies and longtime market leaders alike. And the driving themes of 2018, including voice computing, artificial intelligence and connectivity that make our lives better and more efficient, will be on display across the show floor this week at CES 2018.”
CTA is the nation’s largest tech trade association – its semi-annual report serves as a benchmark for the U.S. consumer technology industry, charting the size and growth of underlying product categories. The CTA consensus forecast reflects U.S. factory sales-to-dealers for more than 300 consumer tech products.
Emerging Technologies Expand
Overall, U.S. sales of connected devices are projected to reach 715 million units in 2018 – a 6.6 percent increase year-over-year. Specific products projected to contribute significantly to this growth include:
- Smart Speakers: Coming off of a tremendous 2017 holiday season, voice-controlled smart speakers, including Amazon Echo and Google Home, are going gangbusters. Unit sales increased 279 percent in 2017, and CTA projects 2018 unit sales will reach 43.6 million units (60 percent increase) and earn $3.8 billion in revenue (93 percent growth). As voice recognition technology is integrated into more speakers at a variety of price points, smart speakers is a category to watch in 2018.
- Smart Home: The popularity of smart speakers will have a ripple effect on the smart home market, as consumers discover the benefits of voice-activated home automation. CTA expects sales in the category – including smart thermostats, smart smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, IP/Wi-Fi cameras, smart locks and doorbells, smart home systems, and smart switches, dimmers and outlets – to reach 40.8 million units in 2018 (41 percent increase over 2017), earning $4.5 billion (34 percent increase).
- Virtual Reality (VR): Popularity among gamers and an increasingly competitive market continue to drive growth for VR/AR headsets and eyewear, with unit shipments projected to grow to 4.9 million units this year (25 percent increase) tallying $1.2 billion in revenues (18 percent increase).
- Drones: Total drone sales are expected to reach record highs of 3.7 million units in 2018 (20 percent increase) earning $1.2 billion in revenue (17 percent increase). CTA’s forecast also delineates U.S. drone sales for units below and above 250 grams, the FAA’s division for mandatory drone registration. Drones below 250 grams are expected to reach just over 2.2 million units this year, while drones above 250 grams will reach 1.5 million units shipped.
- Wearables: The total health, fitness and sports tech market – including fitness activity trackers, other health and fitness devices, hearables , over-the-counter hearing devices, smartwatches and, for the first time, sports tech (such as a smart basketballs or baseball bats) – is expected to reach sales of 49.3 million units in 2018 (four percent increase) and earn $6.4 billion (one percent increase).
“Consumers are rapidly adopting new, emerging technology products – with voice-activated smart speakers as the stand-out of 2017 and 2018 – sparking growth in smart home devices, as voice interaction adds a new level of convenience and excitement to our lives,” said Brian Markwalter, senior vice president of research and standards, CTA. “At the same time, core categories – such as smartphones, laptops and TVs – continue to surpass expectations. 2018 will prove to be a milestone year for TVs, especially as LCD 4K UHD TVs make up half of all TVs sold in 2018.”
Maturing Technologies Continuing
The top five revenue categories will contribute just over half of total wholesale industry revenue (51 percent) in 2018.
- Smartphones: Following the introduction of new flagship models from major manufacturers in 2017, smartphones will continue to anchor the industry and see slight growth in 2018. Unit volume will reach 189 million smartphones (two percent increase) shipping in 2018, with revenues expected to reach $62.9 billion (three percent increase).
- Laptops: In 2018, the commercial and consumer laptop market will sell 50.1 million units, up three percent over last year, and earn $28.4 billion in revenue. Convertible models remain a high-growth area within computing.
- Televisions: Performing better than expected in 2017, unit sales of total digital displays in 2018 are projected to reach 44.2 million units (two percent increase) and $22.1 billion in revenue (two percent increase). Future category growth will be driven by next gen features.
- 4K Ultra High-Definition (4K UHD): For the first time, 4K UHD TVs will make up half of all total digital displays sold in 2018, with unit sales forecast to hit 22 million units (27 percent increase) generating $15.9 billion in revenue (14 percent increase).
- Automotive Electronics: Factory-installed automotive technology, from driver-assist features to entertainment systems, is projected to contribute $15.9 billion in revenue (5.9 percent increase) – the result of strong automotive sales, propelled by a rising tide of tech, from sensors and artificial intelligence to safety and infotainment systems.
- Tablets: After tremendous adoption in recent years, some tablet sales have been cannibalized by convertible, 2-in-1 laptops as standalone tablet adoption has leveled off and replacement cycles have slowed. Tablet sales will decline in 2018. CTA expects sales of 45.6 million units (12 percent decrease) and revenues of $12.5 billion (13 percent decrease).
Kenya tool to help companies prepare for emergencies
After its team members survived last week’s Nairobi terror attack, Ushahidi decided to release a new preparedness tool for free, writes its CEO, NAT MANNING
On Tuesday I woke up a bit before 7am in Berkeley, California where I live. I made some coffee and went over to my computer to start my work day. I checked my Slack and the news and quickly found out that there was an ongoing terrorist attack at 14 Riverside Complex in Nairobi, Kenya. The Ushahidi office is in Nairobi and about a third of our team is based there (the rest of us are spread across 10 other countries).
As I read the news, my heart plummeted, and I immediately asked the question, “is everyone on my team okay?”
Five years ago Al-Shabaab committed a similar attack at the Westgate Mall. We spent several tense hours figuring out if any of our team had been in the mall, and verifying that everyone was safe. We found out that one of our team member’s family was caught up in the attack. Luckily they made it out.
At Ushahidi we make software for crisis response, including tools to map disasters and election violence, and yet we felt helpless in the face of this attack. In the days following the Westgate attack, our team huddled and thought about what we could build that would help our team — and other teams — if we found ourselves in a similar situation to this attack again. We identified that when we first learned of the attack, nearly everyone at Ushahidi had spent that first precious few hours trying to answer the basic questions, “Is everyone okay?”, and if not, “Who needs help?”
People had ad-hoc used multiple channels such as WhatsApp, called, emailed, or texted. We had done this for each person at Ushahidi (their job), in our families, and important people in our community. Our process was unorganised, inefficient, repetitive, and frustrating.
And from this problem we created TenFour, a check in tool that makes it easier for teams to reach one another during times of crisis. It is a simple application that lets people send a message to their team via SMS, Slack, Voice, email, and in-app, and get a response. It also works for educational institutions, companies with distributed staff, as well as part of neighbourhood networks like neighbourhood watches.
This week when I woke up to the news of the attack at Riverside, I immediately opened up the TenFour app.
Click here to read how Nat quickly confirmed the safety of his team.
Kia multi-collision airbags
The world’s first multi-collision airbag system has been unveiled by Hyundai Motor Group subsidiary KIA Motors, with the aim of improving airbag performance in multi-collision accidents.
Multi-collision accidents are those in which the primary impact is followed by collisions with secondary objects, such as other vehicles, trees, or electrical posts, which occur in three out of every 10 accidents. Current airbag systems do not offer secondary protection when the initial impact is insufficient to cause them to deploy.
However, the multi-collision airbag system allows airbags to deploy effectively upon a secondary impact, by calibrating the status of the vehicle and the occupants.
The new technology detects occupants’ positions in the cabin following an initial collision. When occupants are forced into unusual positions, the effectiveness of existing safety technology may be compromised. Multi-collision airbag systems are designed to deploy even faster when initial safety systems may not be effective, providing additional safety when drivers and passengers are most vulnerable. By recalibrating the collision intensity required for deployment, the airbag system responds more promptly during the secondary impact, thereby improving the safety of multi-collision vehicle occupants.
“By improving airbag performance in multi-collision scenarios, we expect to significantly improve the safety of our drivers and passengers,” said Taesoo Chi, head of the Hyundai Motor Group’s Chassis Technology Centre. “We will continue our research on more diverse crash situations as part of our commitment to producing even safer vehicles that protect occupants and prevent injuries.”
According to statistics by the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS), an office of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in USA, about 30% of 56,000 vehicle accidents from 2000 to 2012 in the North American region involved multi-collisions. The leading type of multi-collision accidents involved cars crossing over the centre line (30.8%), followed by collisions caused by a sudden stop at highway tollgates (13.5%), highway median strip collisions (8.0%), and sideswiping and collision with trees and electric poles (4.0%).
These multi-collision scenarios were analysed in multilateral ways to improve airbag performance and precision in secondary collisions. Once commercialised, the system will be implemented in future new KIA vehicles.