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Electric vehicles to hit 20% of ‘light duty’ sales by 2030

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A new report from Guidehouse Insights examines light duty (LD) EV sales and populations, providing forecasts for three scenarios—conservative, base, and aggressive—through 2030.

Recent growth in the LD EV market coupled with strong hybrid EV (HEV) sales growth led to positive uptake in the EV market in 2019—albeit with some areas of the market slowing, such as plug-in EV (PEV) sales in North America. More recently, the introduction of several new SUV and crossover PEV models in North America as well as additional mild-hybrid vehicles coming to market in Europe is expected to propel growth. The electric pickup truck market will likely continue increasing PEV sales in North America as these models come to market in 2021 and beyond. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @WeAreGHInsights, EVs are expected to account for more than 20% of global light duty vehicle sales by 2030.

“Further into the future, continuous improvements to vehicle technology economics, including battery innovations and government transportation policies that incentivize adoption of low emission vehicles and low carbon fuels, are anticipated to propel sales growth,” says Raquel Soat, research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “Growing interest in carbon pricing and increased charging infrastructure investments are expected to also improve PEV economics.”

Despite positive sales growth, challenges remain for the EV market. According to the report, a lack of consumer awareness and a need for more charging infrastructure are significant barriers for LD vehicle electrification. Although awareness is increasing, consumers remain largely unaware of charging and powertrain technologies, the costs associated with EVs (and how they differ from conventional powertrain costs), and the availability of incentives.

The report, Light Duty Vehicle Electrification Overview, provides an outlook on LD EV sales and populations to 2030 and includes passenger cars and light trucks with the following powertrains: HEVs, plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), battery EVs (BEVs), and fuel cell EVs (FCVs). Forecasts are produced for three scenarios distinguished by varying assumptions (conservative, base, and aggressive) regarding future vehicle component costs, government incentives, and vehicle availability. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.

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