CES 2025: CES attempts the quantum leap

The irony was stark. Last Thursday, the world’s largest technology expo by floor space, CES 2025 in Las Vegas, hosted a half-day programme called “Quantum Means Business”.  It promised to convene “the brightest quantum minds” and showcase “breakthroughs that were once confined to science fiction” under the grandiose banner of the World Quantum Congress. Yet, on the show floors, replete with new computer chips, robots and AI infused into anything that could take an infusion, quantum was almost nowhere to be seen.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as few outside rarefied research circles even understand quantum computing: an advanced form of computing based on the arcane principles of quantum physics, which allows particles to exist in different states simultaneously, rather than being in just one state until observed.

By extension, unlike traditional or binary computers that work with bits as either 0 or 1, quantum computers use qubits, which can represent multiple states at once. This enables them to perform some calculations at incredible speeds, leading to breakthroughs like the one Google announced last month with its Willow quantum chip. It performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take today’s fastest regular supercomputers longer than the age of the Universe.

Not only did CES exhibitors not receive the memo, but the big star of the show was on hand to pour cold water over the organiser’s ambitions.

Jensen Huang, CEO and founder of chip-maker Nvidia, leader of the AI hardware revolution, delivered the opening keynote address at CES on Monday evening. He unveiled a string of new Nvidia products, including its latest graphics processor or GPU, the GeForce RTX 50 Series. It promises advancements in AI-driven graphics rendering, as well as double the performance of its predecessors for gamers and developers.

Rather than walking off into the Las Vegas sunset to the sound of adoring applause from his fans, Huang was back the next day to take questions from analysts. Not surprisingly, they asked him about the outlook for quantum computing.

“If you said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side,” he answered.

“If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”

Instantly, a year-long rally in quantum computing stocks came to a shuddering halt, and four major players in the industry each saw their share prices crash by more than 40%.

Two decades from pay-off? No wonder no one was demoing it at CES.

_{Margaret Arakawa, chief marketing officer of IonQ}

On the other hand, there was no shortage of experts ready to counter the feeding frenzy of despair. As ironies multiplied, the Quantum World Congress was kicked off by Margaret Arakawa, chief marketing officer of IonQ. It is one of the four quantum leaders hammered by the market, with its market cap falling from more than $10-billion to $5.5-billion after the rout. Her panel discussion was titled “Quantum is Here.”

She told anyone who would listen: “The momentum for quantum isn’t just future-focused. Quantum is here and it’s addressing some of today’s most complex challenges. We’re … delivering breakthroughs right now for our customers across industries.”

Speaker after speaker in the Quantum World Congress went to great pains to make clear that quantum was indeed ready for business.

_{Dr Joe Broz vice president of IBM Quantum, Photo supplied}

Dr Joe Broz, vice president of IBM Quantum, summed it up: “We firmly believe that we are now in an era of quantum utility, and we are very confident that quantum advantage is in the near term.”

Huang himself had in fact revealed that “just about every quantum computing company in the world is working with us now”. Not South Africa “now now”, translated in the USA as “whenever”, but as we speak.

* Arthur Goldstuck is CEO of World Wide Worx and editor-in-chief of Gadget.co.za. Follow him on Bluesky on @art2gee.bsky.social.