War sparks air drop – but not in Africa

Global passenger demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down by 3.4% in April 2026, compared to a year before, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

However, excluding the Middle East, demand increased by 1.2%, indicating the importance of Gulf airlines like Emirates, Qatar and Etihad. African airlines saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand.

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased -2.9% year-on-year, while the load factor was 83.1% (-0.4 ppt compared to April 2025).

“The 46.6% fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down -3.4%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA director general. 

“The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand.”

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets 

International RPK fell -5.3%, with capacity falling -5.1%. However, this decline was caused by continuing heavy falls in demand for Middle East carriers. Excluding the Middle East, RPK increased by 1.9%. North America was flat and all other regions reported growth. 

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 3.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.5% (+1.9 ppt compared to April 2025), a record high for April. There was a notable slowdown in traffic on the Japan-China corridor, due to ongoing political tensions.

European carriers saw a 0.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.9% (+0.6 ppt compared to April 2025). Direct traffic between Europe and Asia increased 15.3% as it replaced traffic transiting through the Middle East. 

North American carriers saw a 0.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity decreased -1.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9% (+0.9 ppt compared to April 2025).

Middle Eastern carriers saw a -48.1% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell -38.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 70.1% (-13.1 ppt compared to April 2025). Traffic was impacted by the ongoing Iran war, though the decline slowed a little compared to March, as an uneasy ceasefire came into effect. 

Latin American airlines achieved an 8.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 7.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (+1.4 ppt compared to April 2025). 

African airlines saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 1.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 77.9% (+0.7 ppt compared to April 2025). 

Domestic Passenger Markets 

Domestic RPK was flat in April compared to April 2025. Growth in Brazil, China, and Japan was balanced out by falls in Australia, India, and the United States. Load factors fell in most of the major markets barring China and Japan, though it should be noted that capacity in the Japanese market has declined for eight months in a row.