malicious programs reached a saturation point as the number of new files detected each day fell by 15 000.
According to Kaspersky Lab, 2015 marked the moment when demand for new malicious programmes reached saturation point, as the number of new malware files detected every day by its products fell by 15,000, from 325,000 in 2014 to 310,000. Kaspersky Lab’s experts believe this is mainly due to the fact that coding new malware is expensive and cybercriminals have realised that they can get equally good results using intrusive advertising programmes or legitimate digital signatures in their attacks.
This approach appears to be working, as results show that despite the cost-cutting in malware creation, in 2015 the number of users attacked by cybercriminals increased by 5%.
Between 2012 and 2013, there was a rapid increase in the number of new malicious files detected by Kaspersky Lab, from 200,000 new files every day in 2012 to 315,000 in 2013.
Thereafter, things started to slow down. In 2014, the total increased by just 10,000 files a day, and in 2015 the overall number has declined from 325,000 to 310,000. Cybercriminals in search of a quick return appear to have decided that complex coding tools such as rootkits, bootkits or replicating viruses, may bring results, but at a cost, reducing their overall margins and revenue. Moreover, these complex malicious programmes, that can cost tens of thousands of dollars to develop, do not protect the malicious programme from increasingly sophisticated antivirus software accustomed to detecting and analysing far more complicated malware.
For this reason, 2015 saw adware, essentially harmless but often intrusive, become more prominent among overall anti-virus detections. This marks an evolution in cybercriminal tactics, with many now acting almost as businesses, engaged in selling quasi-legitimate commercial software, activity and other “essentials”.
Another trend is for cybercriminals and even advanced, state-sponsored threat actors to make greater use of legal certificates for digital products. With the help of bought or stolen certificates, attackers deceive security software, which trusts an officially-signed file more than a regular one. The value of the certificate may be only a few tens of dollars.
“Cybercrime has lost the last touch of romance. Today, malware is created, bought and resold for specific tasks. The commercial malware market has settled, and is evolving towards simplification. I think will we no longer see malicious “code for the code”. This trend is also observed among the operators of targeted attacks,” says Vyacheslav Zakorzhevsky, Head of Anti-Malware Team at Kaspersky Lab.
Second-hand smartphone market booms
The worldwide market for used smartphones is forecast to grow to 332.9 million units, with a market value of $67 billion, in 2023, according to IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) expects worldwide shipments of used smartphones, inclusive of both officially refurbished and used smartphones, to reach a total of 206.7 million units in 2019. This represents an increase of 17.6% over the 175.8 million units shipped in 2018. A new IDC forecast projects used smartphone shipments will reach 332.9 million units in 2023 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2018 to 2023.
This growth can be attributed to an uptick in demand for used smartphones that offer considerable savings compared with new models. Moreover, OEMs have struggled to produce new models that strike a balance between desirable new features and a price that is seen as reasonable. Looking ahead, IDC expects the deployment of 5G networks and smartphones to impact the used market as smartphone owners begin to trade in their 4G smartphones for the promise of high-performing 5G devices.
Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, says: “In contrast to the recent declines in the new smartphone market, as well as the forecast for minimal growth in new shipments over the next few years, the used market for smartphones shows no signs of slowing down across all parts of the globe. Refurbished and used devices continue to provide cost-effective alternatives to both consumers and businesses that are looking to save money when purchasing a smartphone. Moreover, the ability for vendors to push more affordable refurbished devices in markets in which they normally would not have a presence is helping these players grow their brand as well as their ecosystem of apps, services, and accessories.”
Worldwide Used Smartphone Shipments (shipments in millions of units)
|Rest of World||136.8||77.8%||245.7||73.8%||12.4%|
Source: IDC, Worldwide Used Smartphone Forecast, 2019–2023, Dec 2019.
Table Notes: Data is subject to change.
* Forecast projections.
Says Will Stofega, program director, Mobile Phones: “Although drivers such as regulatory compliance and environmental initiatives are still positively impacting the growth in the used market, the importance of cost-saving for new devices will continue to drive growth. Overall, we feel that the ability to use a previously owned device to fund the purchase of either a new or used device will play the most crucial role in the growth of the refurbished phone market. Trade-in combined with the increase in financing plans (EIP) will ultimately be the two main drivers of the refurbished phone market moving forward.”
According to IDC’s taxonomy, a refurbished smartphone is a device that has been used and disposed of at a collection point by its owner. Once the device has been examined and classified as suitable for refurbishment, it is sent off to a facility for reconditioning and is eventually sold via a secondary market channel. A refurbished smartphone is not a “hand me down” or gained as the result of a person-to-person sale or trade.
The IDC report, Worldwide Used Smartphone Forecast, 2019–2023 (Doc #US45726219), provides an overview and five-year forecast of the worldwide refurbished phone market and its expansion and growth by 2023. This study also provides a look at key players and the impact they will have on vendors, carriers, and consumers.
Customers and ‘super apps’ will shape travel in 2020s
Customers will take far more control of their travel experience in the 2020s, according to a 2020 Trends report released this week by Travelport, a leading technology company serving the global travel industry.
Through independent research with thousands of global travellers – including 500 in South Africa – hundreds of travel professionals and interviews with leaders of some of the world’s biggest travel brands, Travelport uncovered the major forces that will become the technology enablers of travel over the next decade. These include:
Customers in control
Several trends highlight the finding that customers are moving towards self-service options, with 61% of the travellers surveyed in South Africa preferring to hear about travel disruption via digital communications, such as push notifications on an app, mobile chatbots, or instant messaging apps, rather than speaking with a person on the phone. This is especially important when it comes to young travellers under 25, seen as the future business traveler, and managing their high expectations through technology.
With the threat of super app domination, online travel agencies must disrupt or risk being disrupted. Contextual messaging across the journey will help. Super app tech giants like WeChat give their users a one-stop shop to communicate, shop online, book travel, bank, find a date, get food delivery, and pay for anything within a single, unified smartphone app. Travel brands that want to deliver holistic mobile customer experiences need to think about how they engage travellers within these super apps as well as in their own mobile channels.
In the next year, research shows, we will see an accelerated rate of change in the way travel is retailed and purchased online. This includes wider and more complex multi-content reach, more enriched and comparable offerings, more focus on relevance than magnitude, and an increase in automation that enables customer self-service.
“How customers engage with their travel experience – for instance by interacting with digital ‘bots’ and expecting offers better personalised to their needs – is changing rapidly,” says Adrian Roodt, country manager for Southern Africa at Travelport. “We in the travel industry need to understand and keep pace with these forces to make sure we’re continuing to make the experience of buying and managing travel continually better, for everyone.”
Read the full 2020 Trends report here: 2020 Trends hub.