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Will a robot take my job?

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Recent research has found that AI has the potential to double the growth rate of the South African economy. Even though this is great news, it is worrying for many employees as they begin to wonder if they will be replaced by a robot, says ROB JARDINE, Head, Research and Solutions at the NeuroLeadership Institute South Africa.

Last year, research by Accenture and the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) posited that artificial intelligence (AI) had the potential to double the growth rate of the South African economy and boost rates of profitability by an average of 38 percent by 2035. This is great news for South African businesses of course, but an AI-dominated landscape brings with it multiple ethical and social issues, including the problem of a labour force that feels redundant and whose skills may be no longer needed.

AI will undoubtedly change the world of work, just as the Industrial Revolution did in the 1700s and 1800s. Certain jobs will become obsolete, as intelligent machines will be able to complete tasks quicker and more accurately than humans. New roles will also be created – jobs that we haven’t even thought about yet. AI will be the biggest disruptor the business world has seen in over two centuries. It is little wonder, then, that people are already starting to get jittery about the possibility of being replaced by, or working with, a robot in the near future.

Why we see AI as a threat

Neuroscience, which focuses on how the brain works, has some valuable insights into precisely why AI is perceived as such a threat by the workforce. As social animals, our desire to be part of a herd – in this case a company – is hardwired into our brains, an evolutionary remnant of when physical survival depended on safety in numbers. Any sense of social exclusion, therefore, is felt as a danger to our very existence, and our brain is consequently sensitive to this trigger in our social environments.

Feeling excluded is one of the five social triggers that is interpreted by the brain as a result of its central organising principal: to minimize danger and maximise reward. These triggers can put our brains into a threat or reward state that has an effect on our capacity to solve problems, make decisions and collaborate. AI is particularly threatening because it can be triggered by all five areas of human social experience: Status, Certainty, Autonomy, Relatedness, and Fairness (SCARF ®).

AI threatens an employee’s Status, as their value in the workplace and as a productive member of society comes into question. Certainty is no longer guaranteed, as the future is unpredictable and employees wonder whether they will even have a job in the next five years. With AI encroaching on the workplace, employees feel as though they are losing their Autonomy because they cease to feel in control and think that they may not have options. Their Relatedness is threatened as they believe that they don’t belong anymore and are not sure which group they may belong to in the future. Finally, a sense of Fairness is triggered in employees as they feel as though they may not be treated equally.

One of the worst effects of being in a threatened state is that people are not open to change because the brain has less access to long-term memory and its capacity to think rationally and make decisions is reduced. This is because the brain is in a flight-or-flight survival mode, and so does not prioritise these actions. People are consequently also unable to see AI as something that could allow them the space to be more innovative, explore a new career, or give them more free time.

This brain state also affects the control of self-defeating behaviour; for example, an employee in a threatened state could stop being collaborative with their colleagues, procrastinate in their work, and have lower capacity to solve problems. None of this behaviour is conducive to doing business or ensuring a productive workforce.

Cultivating a growth mindset in employees

As AI becomes more of a permanent fixture in companies, employers should start focusing on fostering a growth mindset in their employees, so that they welcome the change that AI will bring, rather than fearing it. This mindset, pioneered by the work of Dr Carol Dweck, is based on whether employees believe that their abilities are finite or if they can be developed. If they do believe that their ability can be developed, then they will be inspired by the change and look forward to it as an opportunity to grow.

We must also remember that, with the dawn of the age of AI, human qualities become far more valuable. AI machines cannot truly collaborate and adjust their behaviour in relation to others’ actions. They do not have the same degree of social intelligence, and cannot become leaders. AI machines also lack business acumen and are unable to transfer their ‘skills’ from one industry to another. All these qualities, even in the age of AI, will still be a vital aspect of ensuring a prosperous society and thriving economy.

Entrepreneurship provides a solution

It is undeniable, however, that many South African’s jobs will become obsolete or change as AI becomes more of a permanent fixture in the workplace. The significant portion of SA’s workforce that is unskilled or semi-skilled will most likely be the first to be replaced by machines that will be able to do the work more efficiently. This will place pressure on individuals to change how they approach work and possibly to seek work in other sectors. However, this is no different to how jobs have evolved in the past. The introduction of more efficient farming technology a few centuries ago, for example, meant fewer people were needed to farm the land and so more workers were able to take up roles in other industries where there were labour shortages.

But with every door that AI closes to the workforce, another one opens – in this case, entrepreneurship. AI will make entrepreneurship an even more sought-after skill in the SA economy, as it focuses on innovation, provides employment opportunities, and has significant social impact. Entrepreneurship also gives individuals a sense of belonging, as being productive members of society provides Status, Certainty, Autonomy, and a sense of Relatedness and Fairness. People are able to elevate their level of contribution, they have more certainty and autonomy in their own work in an entrepreneurial setting, and can develop a more individualised sense of belonging by being able to gain as much as they contribute. This sense of belonging means that people are performing at their best, as they do not feel threatened by a change that may seem out of their control.

Of course, in order to retain employees, it is not feasible to ask them to set up their own shops. However, as employers, we can look at the ways that we define and integrate current employment when the machines join us in the workforce. By allowing employees more autonomy and control in the way they do and view their work, we can put them in a better brain state, as it plays to their social drivers. In most industries where the impact of machines will become more prominent, this is already being done in the advancement of the gig economy.

In conclusion, then, AI is definitely set to change our workforce in the next few decades, but not all these changes will be threatening. It is up to employers to ensure that their employees realise this by playing to the social domains that trigger the brain, so that every individual can continue to perform optimally, learn new skills, and work towards their future roles in stimulating our economy. If we are able to do this, we will ensure our brains will be at their best to face and embrace this change.

In a world that is becoming more mechanistic, it is our ability to be aware of our social surroundings that both sets us apart, and allows us to never fear a robot taking our job.

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News fatigue shifts Google searches in SA

Google search trends in South Africa reveal a startling insight into news appetite, writes BRYAN TURNER.

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The big searches of the year no longer track the biggest news stories of the year, suggesting a strong dose of news fatigue among South Africans.

“People ask, why are the Guptas not on the list of Google’s top searches?, says Mich Atagana, head of communications and public affairs at Google South Africa, “The Guptas are not on the list because South Africans are not actually that interested. South Africans are looking for things they don’t know. From a Gupta point of view, we’ve been exhausted by the news and we know exactly what is going on.”

Google South Africa announced the results of its 2018 Year in Search, offering a unique perspective on the year’s major moments.

“Four years ago, there were almost no South Africans on the personalities list,” says Atagana. “Over the years, South Africans have gotten more interested in South Africa, in searching on Google.”

That isn’t to say that international searches – like Meghan Markle – are not heavily searched by South Africans. But  they feature lower down on the lists.

From the World Cup to listeriosis, Zuma and Global Citizen, South Africans use search to find the things they really need to know.

These are the main trends revealed  by Google this week:

Top trending South African searches

  1. World Cup fixtures
  2. Load shedding
  3. Global Citizen
  4. Zuma
  5. Winnie Mandela
  6. HHP
  7. Listeriosis
  8. Black Panther
  9. Meghan Markle
  10. Mac Miller

Trending personalities

  1.    Jacob Zuma
  2. Cyril Ramaphosa
  3. Sbahle Mpisane
  4. Kevin Anderson
  5. Malusi Gigaba
  6. Ashwin Willemse
  7. Patrice Motsepe
  8. Cheryl Zondi
  9. Shamila Batohi
  10. Mlindo the Vocalist

Top Questions

  1. How did Avicii die?
  2. How old is Pharrell Williams?
  3. What is listeriosis?
  4. What is black data?
  5. How old is Prince Harry?
  6. How much are Global Citizen tickets?
  7. How to get pregnant?
  8. What time is the royal wedding?
  9. What happened to HHP?
  10. How old is Meghan Markle?

Top ‘near me’ searches

  1. Jobs near me
  2. Nandos near me
  3. Dischem near me
  4. McDonalds near me
  5. Guest house near me
  6. Postnet near me
  7. Steers near me
  8. Spar near me
  9. Debonairs near me
  10. Spur near me

Top women

  1. Winnie Mandela
  2. Meghan Markle
  3. Sbahle Mpisane
  4. Aretha Franklin
  5. Khloe Kardashian
  6. Sophie Ndaba
  7. Cheryl Zondi
  8. Demi Lovato
  9. Lerato Sengadi
  10. Siam Lee

The Year In Search 2018 minisite can be found here.

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Smartphones dip in 2018

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 3% in 2018 before returning to low single-digit growth in 2019 and through 2022.

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While the on-going U.S.-China trade war has the industry on edge, IDC still believes that continued developments from emerging markets, mixed with potential around 5G and new product form factors, will bring the smartphone market back to positive growth.

Smartphone shipments are expected to drop to 1.42 billion units in 2018, down from 1.47 billion in 2017. However, IDC expects year-over-year shipment growth of 2.6% in 2019. Over the long-term, smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.57 billion units in 2022. From a geographic perspective, the China market, which represented 30% of total smartphone shipments in 2017, is finally showing signs of recovery. While the world’s largest market is still forecast to be down 8.8% in 2018 (worse than the 2017 downturn), IDC anticipates a flat 2019, then back to positive territory through 2022. The U.S. is also forecast to return to positive growth in 2019 (up 2.1% year over year) after experiencing a decline in 2018.

The slow revival of China was one of the reasons for low growth in Q3 2018 and this slowdown will persist into Q1 2019 as the market is expected to drop by 3% in Q4 2018. Furthermore, the recently lifted U.S. ban on ZTE had an impact on shipments in Q3 2018 and created a sizable gap that is yet to be filled heading into 2019.

“With many of the large global companies focusing on high-end product launches, hoping to draw in consumers looking to upgrade based on specifications and premium devices, we can expect head-to-head competition within this segment during the holiday quarter and into 2019 to be exceptionally high,” said Sangeetika Srivastava, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.

Though 2018 has fallen below expectations so far, the worldwide smartphone market is set to pick up on the shift toward larger screens and ultra-high-end devices. All the big players have further built out their portfolios with bigger screens and higher-end smartphones, including Apple’s new launch in September. In Q3 2018, the 6-inch to less than 7-inch screen size band became the most prominent band for the first time with more than four times year-over-year growth. IDC believes that larger-screen smartphones (5.5 inches and above) will lead the charge with volumes of 947.1 million in 2018, accounting for 66.7% of all smartphones, up from 623.3 million units and 42.5% share in 2017. By 2022, shipments of these larger-screen smartphones will move up to 1.38 billion units or 87.7% of overall shipment volume.

“What we consider a so-called normal size smartphone has shifted dramatically in a few short years and while we are stretching the limits with bezel-less devices, the next big switch to flexible screens will test our imaginations even further,” said Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “While this category of device is still nascent and won’t see major adoption in the year ahead, it’s exciting to see changes to the standard monoblock we are all so used to carrying.”

Platform Highlights

Android: Android’s smartphone share will remain stable at 85% throughout the forecast. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% with shipments approaching 1.36 billion in 2022. Android is still the choice of the masses with no shift expected. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to grow by 9.6% in 2018 to US$258, up from US$235 in 2017. IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a softened rate from 2019 and beyond. Not only are market players pushing upgraded specs and materials to offset decreasing replacement rates, but they are also serving the evolving consumer needs for better performance.

iOS: iOS smartphones are forecast to drop by 2.5% in 2018 to 210.4 million. The launch of expensive and bigger screen iOS smartphones in Q3 2018 helped Apple to raise its ASP, simultaneously making it somewhat difficult to increase shipments in the current market slump. IDC is forecasting iPhone shipments to grow at a five-year CAGR of 0.1%, reaching volumes of 217.3 million in 2022. Despite the challenges, there is no ambiguity that Apple will continue to lead the global premium market segment.

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