It is one of the great mysteries of our time. Or, at least, one of the great investment mysteries for those wondering when to leap onto the next big bandwagon.
Waiting in the wings to take over the lead role in technology from AI lurks quantum computing, which uses strange rules of physics to solve problems far faster than today’s most powerful computers.
However, the star of the moment looks unlikely to exit any time soon, especially as the AI boom pushes chipmaker Nvidia to a market capitalisation of $5-trillion and Microsoft to $4-trillion.
These absurd numbers tell us AI will hog the spotlight for a while yet. Only then, says the smartest money, comes quantum. But that can only happen when there is a real business case for it. For now, quantum computers are too unstable for serious business use.
In contrast, AI is quickly proving itself as a time-saver and productivity super-power, with Amazon announcing this week it is cutting 14,000 jobs thanks to AI, and Nestle adding another 16,000 to the unemployment lines.
Quantum computing, so far, has offered only “post quantum cybersecurity” to stoke fears of hackers gathering encrypted data today in order to decrypt it with quantum machines tomorrow.
But this week, the outlook changed.
On Thursday, a new study was released by emerging technologies market research company IDTechEx, based in the English university town of Cambridge. Its report carried an ambitious title: “Quantum Computing Market 2026-2046: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts”.
Image source: IDTechEx.
IDTechEx quantum expert Noah El Alami writes: “One of the most hotly debated topics in the quantum computing industry is what the first breakthrough ‘killer application’ will be, sometimes also referred to as the ‘ChatGPT moment’ for quantum, drawing parallels to the transition of LLMs from deep-tech projects to commercial success.”
Thanks to studying the proceedings of numerous global conferences and conducting primary interviews with players across the quantum value chain, including hardware developers, materials providers, and end-users, says El Alami, his company can now shift focus to which industries will be the first to benefit from commercially ready quantum computers. Before dropping any bombshells, though, he offers the boring background that justifies his predictions:
“Based on input from the industry, one of the most commonly cited near-term use cases for quantum computing is in simulations of quantum chemistry and materials science, which could unlock a variety of new chemicals, materials, and pharmaceuticals. Market leaders such as Google Quantum AI and Quantinuum have already demonstrated the proof of concept for these simulations on real quantum hardware.
“One of the first problems to be simulated is the Ising model, which describes the behaviour of magnetic materials but becomes exponentially difficult to compute on classical computers. Quantum computers could therefore accelerate the discovery and characterisation of new magnetic materials. Beyond magnetic materials, quantum computing could accelerate the discovery of new battery chemistries, industrial chemicals, or more effective drugs. For this reason, investment and collaboration with the quantum sector from the chemical, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors has been steadily gaining momentum over the last 5-10 years.”
“Another popular response to the question of what applications quantum computing could unlock is the more efficient optimisation of problems and workflows across many industries. These problems include the better distribution of resources in factories and energy grids, improving supply or delivery workflows for manufacturing and logistics, or portfolio optimisation in financial trading.”
How does this translate into business cases? Over to D-Wave, a US-Canadian company that claims to be the first to supply quantum computers commercially. Customers for whom they have demonstrated real-world business cases, they told IDTechEx, ranged from telecoms to the food industry to the research division of General Electric.
Ultimately, it comes down to one question: which industries have problems that quantum computing would solve?
The study breaks it down into three categories: those already buying quantum computers, such as companies using high-end computers for heavyweight AI processing; the most likely early commercial use cases, such as pharmaceutical firms developing new drugs; and later adopters with highly lucrative problems to solve, such as automotive, aerospace and financial corporations.
“The more efficient solution of optimisation problems and logistics would be highly lucrative for a larger range of industries,” says El Alami. “But it is of ongoing debate how soon these problems could benefit from a quantum speedup.”
* Arthur Goldstuck is CEO of World Wide Worx, editor-in-chief of Gadget.co.za, and author of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to AI – The African Edge.