Quantum computing may take more than five years to deliver broad commercial value, but large industries have already started testing where it can outperform classical computing. That is the conclusion of Forrester’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies in 2026 report, which lists quantum computing as its sole long-term technology trend.
Forrester defines quantum computing as “a class of emerging hardware and software that exploits quantum physics to solve computationally complex problems”.
The company sees the earliest gains emerging in optimisation and simulation workloads. Banks are testing portfolio optimisation and risk modelling. Pharmaceutical firms are exploring molecular simulation and drug discovery. Manufacturing and energy companies are studying supply-chain routing, production scheduling, and materials modelling.
According to the report: “Research continues to show measurable gains toward value in portfolio optimisation, molecular simulation, drug discovery workflows, and supply chain optimisation.”
The attraction lies in the way quantum systems process information. Conventional computers evaluate possibilities sequentially or through massive parallel processing. Quantum systems use qubits that can represent multiple states simultaneously, allowing certain classes of problems to be explored far more efficiently.
The commercial reality remains far less glamorous than the theory.
Quantum systems still struggle with instability, error correction, and scale. Most deployments remain confined to highly specialised pilot projects using hybrid quantum-classical systems. Forrester warns that commercial impact will stay limited for several years.
“Current systems are noisy, small-scale, and years from stable logical qubits, limiting commercial value to narrow hybrid pilots.”
That caution stands in sharp contrast to the flood of marketing claims surrounding quantum breakthroughs over the past few years. Hardware vendors continue announcing larger processors and improved qubit counts, but the practical business case remains narrow.
Forrester estimates that meaningful ROI for most organisations lies beyond the five-year horizon.
The area creating the greatest urgency may turn out to be cybersecurity rather than computing performance.
The report highlights growing concern around “Q-Day”, the point at which quantum systems become powerful enough to crack widely used encryption methods. Forrester suggests that moment could arrive as early as 2030.
That possibility has accelerated interest in quantum-safe encryption standards among governments, banks, and infrastructure operators. Many organisations face the uncomfortable prospect of preparing for a quantum security threat long before they gain practical access to useful quantum computing power.
South African industries with heavy optimisation workloads stand to benefit first if the technology matures as expected. Financial services, logistics, mining, manufacturing, and energy management all depend on solving increasingly complex computational problems where small efficiency gains can translate into major cost savings.
The technology giants continue investing aggressively despite the long timelines. The report highlights platforms and ecosystems from IBM, Google, Microsoft, AWS, and specialist quantum firms building hardware, algorithms, and cloud services around the sector.
Quantum computing still carries substantial uncertainty. Some hardware approaches may prove impossible to scale economically. Others may remain confined to niche applications. For now, the strongest activity centres on experimentation, talent development, and preparing industries for a technology that remains powerful in theory and selective in practice.