South Africa’s mobile market is undergoing a structural shift, as challenger operators capture high value subscribers from market leaders. Opensignal’s latest Subscriber Analytics data shows that Vodacom, the country’s largest mobile operator has lost seven percentage points of market share since the beginning of 2024. MTN has absorbed some of that user base (+2 percentage points), but the majority of the subscriber gains are concentrated among challenger operators: Telkom is up three percentage points, Cell C up one.
This is no longer just prepaid churn at the margins. Incumbents are now exposed in higher-value segments.
Quality, Not Price, Is Driving the Shift
This disruption is not price-led. When viewed through Opensignal’s Metro Area 2×2 Matrix – mapping Consistent Quality (CQ) against localised market share – it becomes clear that challengers’ growth is being driven by improved network quality and targeted commercial execution.
Historically, challengers – Telkom and Cell C – relied heavily on aggressive prepaid pricing to acquire price-sensitive users — a strategy reflected in their traditionally lower Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Today, however, that model is evolving. Powered by a rapid ‘quality catch-up,’ these challengers are increasingly capturing higher-margin, top-tier subscribers who are migrating away from legacy networks. As Consistent Quality (CQ) improves, they are increasingly attracting higher-value subscribers who were previously locked into incumbent networks.
From Resilience to Optimisation: Playing catch up on Consistency
To understand this market shift, it is essential to consider the operating environment. For several years, South African operators prioritised network resilience above all else. Persistent load-shedding forced the industry to spend heavily on keeping towers powered: The regulator’s ICASA data indicates that operators spent approximately R2.6-billion ($122-million) on backup batteries solely in 2023/24 at the peak of the crisis.
As grid stability improves –– with Eskom recently passing 300 consecutive days without load-shedding –– operators are reallocating capital from resilience to network optimisation and improving performance.
This transition is accelerating improvements in network quality, particularly among challenger brands, reducing the historical gap with incumbents.
As highlighted in Opensignal’s previous analyses, including South Africa’s 2G/3G sunset and CQ improvements, baseline network reliability for the entire country has risen. Crucially, mid-tier operators are closing the historical Consistent Quality (CQ) gap, bringing their network experience progressively up to par with market leaders.
This removes a key barrier to switching: high-value users no longer need to trade reliability for price, making them more willing to consider alternative providers.
Quality-Led Acquisition: MTN’s Metro Advantage
Opensignal’s Subscriber Analytics (OSA) Win/Loss Composition data shows Vodacom is steadily losing share mainly to MTN. This migration aligns with local network performance. With Opensignal’s Subscriber Analytics (OSA) products, we are able to see deterministically the composition of Vodacom’s wins and losses. This clearly shows that Vodacom is steadily losing share to MTN. This migration aligns to MTN’s advantage in consistent quality across markets.
National averages, however, mask important regional dynamics. In major economic centers like Cape Town and the City of Tshwane, MTN outperforms its competitors in Consistent Quality. Yet here in these specific metros, MTN currently holds an underweight market share relative to its national average.
This localised superiority is not an accident.
MTN’s aggressive R1.5-billion ($84-million) investment strategy to counter load-shedding and upgrade base station power resilience is now acting as a primary commercial lever. By delivering a measurably higher CQ in these specific regional pockets, MTN is effectively attracting premium, data-centric subscribers — particularly those using high-end devices that unlock superior 5G mobile experiences — who value reliability above all else.
The Challenger Catch up: Blending Quality and Value
Telkom and Cell C present a highly effective value-quality intersection strategy. While they may still sit slightly lower on the overall CQ matrix compared to MTN, their networks have crossed the threshold of “good enough” for the modern high value consumers.
This threshold was not crossed overnight. As our previous analysis shows between May 2023 and the end of 2024, Cell C’s Consistent Quality surged by 15 percentage points, while Telkom saw steady, sustained gains to push its network parity forward. More recent CQ data suggests this momentum is continuing — a trend Opensignal will detail in the next Mobile Network Experience report.
This multiyear quality catch-up laid the foundation for the subscriber migration we are witnessing in the market today. By achieving this baseline of reliable Consistent Quality, challengers opened the door to acquiring high-value users who would not have previously considered switching from the market leader. It is this specific intersection—where improved network reality meets aggressive value—that is driving the current win-share metrics. For example, in Durban and Port Elizabeth, both Telkom and Cell C successfully maintain local market shares well above their national averages.
Challenger operators are capturing this market share through a holistic approach to the customer experience.
Cell C’s Quality-First Virtual Pivot & Wholesale Disruption
By transitioning to a virtual RAN model operating on MTN’s infrastructure, Cell C instantly elevated its network. Rather than fighting a CAPEX war, they are utilising this improved, outsourced CQ to offer exceptional digital experiences and aggressive data value.
Crucially, Cell C is also leveraging this reliable baseline to host MVNO partners. For example, Capitec Connect’s recent move on market pricing with free on-net calls and aggressive device financing relies entirely on Cell C’s wholesale network. Capitec recently reported 1.5-million active users and triple data traffic, demonstrating that challenger infrastructure can serve as a launchpad for capturing price-sensitive, value-driven market share at scale. This is most recently demonstrated towards the back end of 2025 with Captiec moving from a 1% market share in Q1 and Q2 2025 to growing and maintaining 2% market share in Q3 and Q4 2025 as per our earlier South Africa mobile market share graphic.
Telkom’s Targeted Customer Experience
Telkom is driving active user growth not just through lower prices, but through aggressive network and regional expansion. For example, aregional expansion strategy targeting under-indexed, non-metro areas has gained massive traction, with Telkom reporting a 5.6% increase in its share of subscriber acquisitions in those regions. Paired with tailored data platforms such as Mo’Nice and Mo’Town and R5.8-billion in Capex that delivered a core network availability of 99.99% and a Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 72.3, Telekom is offering a friction-free experience that attracts switchers across all demographics.
The Post Resilience Era and the Perception Gap
What do these converging trends mean for the future of South African Telecoms? It signals that the market has crossed a threshold into the “post-resilience” era.
For the past five years, competition was defined by survival –– who had the capital to keep the towers powered during outages. That chapter is closing.
As challenger operators close the Consistent Quality gap, baseline network reliability is shifting from a premium differentiator to table stakes. However, this rapid challenger brand catch up has created a significant Perception Gap: consumer assumptions are lagging behind network realities. Many high- value subscribers remain loyal to incumbents, unaware that challengers now deliver comparable performance in their local markets.
The ultimate takeaway is that engineering a great network is no longer enough; operators must actively dismantle outdated consumer assumptions. As we recently explored with the ‘Urban Fortress’ strategies in India, the most successful operators are those that base their decisions on detailed, metro-level data.
The strategy for the “perception era”
To capture high-value market share in this fragmented environment, operators need to align their capital allocation with localised data, and bridge the gap between network reality and consumer belief.
- Understand why consumers are switching:
Ultimately, engineering improvements only matter if they help drive commercial outcomes. By correlating network performance metrics with granular subscriber mobility and switching data, operators can track win/loss ratios at the metro level. This 360-degree view allows leadership to definitively identify whether a local market deficit is an engineering problem (requiring CAPEX deployment) or a perception problem (requiring targeted marketing spend).
- Target the right lever – CVM or CAPEX:
A strong network won’t automatically trigger switching where legacy brand loyalty runs deep. Where an operator holds a localised quality advantage but is failing to win share, they should deploy hyper targeted Customer Value management (CVM) and localised marketing to break established habits. Conversely, where the switching data shows a bleed directly tied to a CQ deficit, Capex must be prioritised.
- Target the right message:
A network advantage is worthless if the consumer does not believe it exists. Operators must be able to demonstrate their local network reliability objectively at the retail level. Empowering frontline sales channels with verifiable, localised data allows agents to break brand loyalty. By showing a prospective switcher that the network in their specific neighbourhood is not just “good enough” but fully optimised for their needs, rather than relying on historical brand reputation alone.
Ultimately, the operators who recognise this shift and utilise a holistic suite of verified analytics to align consumer perception with engineering reality will define the next phase of South African market leadership.
Interested in how operators in other hyper-competitive markets are utilising localised data to drive acquisition and retention?
Read previous analysis: The Urban Fortress Strategy: Navigating India’s Localised 5G Landscape.
Methodology
Opensignal Subscriber Analytics metrics assess market share and flow share (i.e., competitive switching). These metrics are used to monitor and measure subscriber movements between all players in the market. They answer what is happening in the industry and are most often used to inform both reactive and proactive decision-making.
Opensignal calculates market performance metrics from our first-party dataset of automated device tests. Data — including provider, network type, location, and device details — is aggregated and calibrated to accurately reflect performance outcomes.
Metric Definitions:
- Market Share: A carrier’s total subscribers as a percentage of all subscribers in the market
- Consistent Quality (CQ): Quality calculation providing an indication of customer experience for high performance activities such as live HD video streaming
- CQ Index: Carrier CQ / Strongest Competitor CQ.