The world already has the resources to produce the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) needed for net zero aviation by 2050. What stands in the way is the sluggish rollout of the technology to turn that promise into reality.
This is according to the Global Feedstock Assessment for SAF Production study, published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in partnership with Worley Consulting. The feedstocks – or raw materials – assessed meet stringent sustainability criteria and do not require changes in land use.
The study identified two significant obstacles to scaling SAF production. The first is the slow pace of technology rollout that would allow SAF to be produced from a wider range of sources. At present, the only commercially scaled facilities rely on Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology, which converts feedstocks such as used cooking oil into fuel.
The second is competition for the same feedstock from other sectors, making it critical that policies prioritise allocation to hard-to-abate industries like aviation.
Airlines will need 500-million tonnes (Mt) of SAF to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as outlined in the IATA Net Zero Roadmaps. This can be achieved from two main sources:
- Biomass: This has the potential to produce more than 300Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. Some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. This potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades.
- Power-to-liquid (PtL): This will be required to reach 500Mt of SAF production annually by 2050. Maximising the volumes of cost-effective bio-SAF will reduce the pressure on e-SAF to bridge the gap.
In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions.
“We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation,” says Willie Walsh, IATA director general.
“There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”
Key findings from the report include:
- There are sufficient sustainable feedstocks and SAF production technologies to decarbonise aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.
- With the right policies and investments, more than 300Mt of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced annually by mid-century and around 200Mt from e-SAF.
The main challenges are:
- Enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstocks identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry.
- Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure which are all required as part of the PtL production method.
- Achieving co-ordinated government policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities.
- Rallying regional leadership, with North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) identified as key drivers of global SAF output.
- Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisation goals.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA SVP for sustainability and chief economist, says: “The report highlights the local and regional opportunities for SAF production to create jobs, stimulate economies and support energy security goals.
“Governments, energy producers, investors, and the aviation sector must work together, de-risk investment, and accelerate rollout. Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need. The time to act is now – delays will only make the challenge harder.”
Walsh says: “With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector. The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.”