Radical steps are required to secure South Africa’s energy supply, and solar energy is the key to spearheading this revolution.
The call has been made by leading residential solar provider GoSolr in its first Quarterly Solar Update, in effect a “state of solar” report, which it termed a “Light Paper”.
“South Africa has a serious energy problem,” said Andrew Middleton, co-founder and CEO of GoSolr. “We don’t produce enough, it costs a fortune, and it’s damaging our environment. Without solar, our energy woes would be even more catastrophic.”
In 2023, a record year for load shedding, electricity demand exceeded output by 16-million megawatt hours. Without the aid of rooftop solar, the report revealed, the energy shortfall last year would have been 44% worse, at 23-million megawatt hours.
The rooftop solar added to the electricity generation mix in 2023 contributed to an average load shedding stage drop to level 1-2 in the first quarter of 2024, down from an average of level 3-4 in the same quarter last year.
The first three months of 2024 saw South Africans experience 68 days of load shedding.
The report quantified the economic cost that was avoided by solar: “Based on regulators’ estimates for the cost of unserved electricity, rooftop solar may now be saving the country more than half-a-trillion rand a year.”
The document paints a hopeful picture despite these grim statistics, showing that South Africa is ranked third worldwide in terms of solar potential, yet hampered by outdated policies and a maze of inconsistent regulations.
“The potential for growth and the benefits are incredible – from cost savings to job creation,” said Middleton. But to tap into this potential, South Africa must navigate through the quagmire of provincial policy disparities and push for bold, unified national action.
The report found that, with NERSA, government, Eskom, and 257 metropolitan, district and local municipalities operating in a near-siloed manner, “the many players and inconsistent regulatory frameworks have resulted in a patchwork policy problem, while energy tariffs and electricity prices continue to rise”.
Complicating matters further, said the report, South Africa is the largest carbon emitter in Africa, with 77% of our electricity generation coming from coal. According to the Africa Energy Outlook 2022 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), 33% of Africa’s CO2 emissions in 2020 were from South Africa alone. Yet, it only occupies 4% of the entire continent’s landmass.
On a global scale, the fossil fuel era is entering a structural decline, and the promise of clean energy is materialising said the IEA in its “World Energy Outlook 2023” report. It foresaw significant transformation, predicting that renewables will surpass coal in 2025 as the largest source of global electricity generation. By 2028, it said, renewables would account for 42% of global electricity generation, with solar at 13% of the total mix.
On the brighter side in this country, the solar industry could be the silver lining South Africans have been waiting for. In 2023, despite massive blackouts, rooftop solar installations added 5,440 MW of energy to the national grid.
The report found that, while there are 17.8-million homes in South Africa, only about 124 000 (0.69%) of these have rooftop solar.
“If we successfully moved the industry in the right direction, decarbonising South Africa’s power sector could create ± 145 000 net jobs in the next two+ decades, while opening up key business ventures needed for installation, maintenance, and managing end of life of solar solutions.”
Municipal authorities have been slow to support such initiatives, and only a handful have allow homes and businesses to inject excess solar power into the grid. The report highlights the efforts made by the City of Cape Town, which it describes as “a blue print for the rest”.
In July 2023, Cape Town allowed commercial and industrial customers with their own power solutions) to become net sellers back to the grid. In February this year, residents with rooftop solar systems were also allowed to register with the city’s Cash for Power Programme, through which they can sell any excess electricity back to the municipal grid.
Parallel to GoSolr’s call, Nedbank has launched an innovative campaign aimed at empowering youth and alleviating school load-shedding impacts through a platform called MoveUp. It provides a repository of free online courses, CV builders, and an energy audit tool developed in collaboration with Dr Jason Samuels, an electrical engineer from Stellenbosch University.
The tool enables users to perform detailed assessments of their power needs, fostering a practical understanding of solar photovoltaic systems.
Samuels said: “Our collaboration with MoveUp equips young South Africans with the skills to perform energy audits, thereby planting the seeds for the future proliferation of solar technology.”
Bridget Nkandu, executive head of strategy and new business development at Nedbank, said the campaign was about more than energy: “It’s about empowering the youth with the skills for tomorrow.”
To make the initiative more appealing, Nedbank has pledged over R1-million in prizes, including s sponsorships for solar installations in schools, along with scholarships for further education in the solar industry.
The combination of efforts like GoSolr’s strategic insights and Nedbank’s educational programmes are regarded as pivotal for reshaping South Africa’s energy framework.
Patrick Narbel, co-founder and chief technology officer of GoSolr, told Business Times: “These initiatives not only address the immediate challenges posed by the energy crisis but also set the stage for a transformative shift towards sustainable practices. The promise of solar energy in South Africa is immense, poised to reduce dependency on an unreliable national grid and create a decentralised energy system.
“As the solar industry evolves, the integration of innovative solutions with proactive policymaking becomes crucial. This pivotal moment in energy transformation represents an opportunity to redefine the national energy strategy, emphasizing sustainability and resilience. Continued support and action towards expanding solar energy capabilities are essential, involving a concerted effort from businesses, policymakers, and the community at large.”
Get it right, and ample rewards will follow, according to the Light Paper: “We know that there is immense potential in solar power generation and its ability to pull us out of the current energy crisis. The future of energy in South Africa lies in solar, that leads to ample clean power, job creation, new recycling systems, and – believe it or not – cost savings for South African households.”
* This article first appeared in Business Times in The Sunday Times.