Gadget

The new math of real estate

When I started out in real estate two decades ago, success often depended on instinct and local knowledge. The right address, a firm handshake, and a rough idea of what the neighbour’s house sold for were often enough to close a deal. 

Those days are gone. 

Today, technology, from machine learning models to satellite data and automated valuations, is rewriting how investors assess risk, spot opportunity and build long-term wealth. For me, property used to be about location, location, location. It still is, but now it is also about information, information, information. Those who know how to harness data and technology will outperform in the next cycle.

Information advantage, the new property currency

Until recently, property data in South Africa was fragmented and expensive. Big banks and valuers guarded transaction records, while ordinary buyers and smaller investors had limited visibility into real market trends. That is changing fast. Platforms such as Loom, Lightstone and TPN are democratising access to deeds office transfers, suburb-level price movements, rental payment histories and risk profiles. I particularly like Loom’s AI-driven analytics and the relationship we have built with its founders. Artificial intelligence can now process this data in seconds, surfacing patterns invisible to the naked eye, such as migration flows, price volatility, or early signs of gentrification. If you can read buyer demand shifts before everyone else, you can position your capital with less risk. We have seen semigration corridors light up on dashboards months before agents on the ground felt the buzz. My advice to investors is simple: subscribe to credible analytics platforms, track more than just headline growth, and learn to interpret vacancy rates, income stability and time-to-sell metrics.

Valuations and AI: Faster, Fairer, but not infallible

One of the biggest shifts I have witnessed is the rise of automated valuation models (AVMs). These AI systems combine historic deeds data, comparable sales, building plans, photos and geospatial inputs to estimate market value instantly. Used correctly, they empower investors and sellers by reducing guesswork and preventing overpriced listings or risky overbids. However, I always caution against blind trust. AI models are brilliant at recognising patterns in stable data sets, but South Africa’s property market is anything but uniform. One incorrectly coded transfer or a small sectional title with unusual levies can skew the output. That is why human insight still matters. At Meridian Realty, we use AVMs as a starting point and then overlay our own on-the-ground intelligence — everything from property condition and neighbourhood nuance to infrastructure developments on the horizon.

Digital deals: Automation, Not yet signatures

The property transaction process has evolved too, but South African law still draws a clear line. Despite global trends, it remains unlawful to conclude the sale of immovable property using a digital signature. The Electronic Communications and Transactions Act (ECTA 25 of 2002) specifically excludes property sale agreements from its electronic signature provisions. We have therefore not digitised the signing of Offers to Purchase (OTPs), but we have automated their creation and preparation. Our agents can generate fully compliant OTPs automatically from captured data, which still need to be printed and signed manually. The result is a process that is faster, more accurate and fully compliant. It reduces human error, improves client experience and keeps us ahead without breaching legal frameworks.

The power of alternative data

Globally, and increasingly in South Africa, investors are layering alternative data on top of traditional property metrics. This includes satellite imagery to monitor construction, mobile movement data to predict retail demand, and even social sentiment analysis to gauge neighbourhood appeal or safety perceptions. We are entering a world where your competitive edge might come from a data source your competitors do not even know exists. For now, this is still the domain of early adopters and large funds, but it will filter down.

Antonie Goosen, principal and founder of Meridian Realty.

Risk management gets a digital upgrade

Data is not just about growth; it is also about protection. Rental management platforms like TPN allow landlords to assess tenant reliability before signing leases. Predictive analytics can flag suburbs where arrears or vacancies are spiking. Tools that integrate bond repayments, rates, levies and insurance can model cash flow under different interest rate scenarios. In a flat or slow-growing market, this discipline matters more than ever. Good downside protection is the real wealth builder. If you can hold an asset safely through lean years, the next up-cycle will take care of the rest.

Global forces, local application

International disruption is reshaping local property norms. Tokenisation and fractional ownership are showing that property can be divided into tradable digital tokens, opening prime assets to smaller investors. Blockchain title registries, while still aspirational, could eventually make property transfers faster and fraud-resistant. Proptech innovation is accelerating locally too, with start-ups exploring AI valuations, automated rental payments and smart building systems. I am optimistic but cautious. Tokenisation could democratise access, but investors must always understand the underlying asset and legal framework. Do not just buy the buzzword.

The human factor still wins

Despite all the digital disruption, I remain convinced that data is a tool, not a substitute for strategy and experience. Technology helps us move faster and make better calls, but property is never traded in a vacuum. It is tied to people’s lives, community dynamics and broader economic realities. Human judgement remains essential. The best investors will be hybrid thinkers, people who can read dashboards but also walk the streets, talk to planners and understand the social heartbeat of a neighbourhood.

Action points for the data-driven investor

  1. Invest in reliable data sources such as Loom, Lightstone and TPN, they will save you from costly mistakes.
  2. Stress test your cash flow. Model rates two percent higher and vacancies ten percent worse to see if the deal holds.
  3. Track migration and semigration patterns, secondary towns are evolving fast.
  4. Automate processes where you can, but respect the legal need for wet signatures.
  5. Balance AI insights with human intelligence.

Looking ahead

The next decade will not reward passive investors. Some suburbs will stagnate while others quietly boom. The ability to access accurate data and act quickly will separate the winners from the rest. The future belongs to informed investors who adapt fast. We have gone from back-of-envelope calculations to AI models in less than 20 years. The next 20 will move even faster, but those who combine technology with human intelligence will thrive.

Exit mobile version