New research from International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts page volume will fall 13.7% in 2020, from 3.2 trillion pages in 2019 to 2.8 trillion pages in 2020 (baseline scenario). While the market is expected to bounce back slightly in the years ahead, page volumes are now forecast to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.8% over the 2019-2024 forecast period, which is notably lower than the 2015-2019 CAGR of -1.2%.
Worldwide Historical and Forecast Page Volume Growth Rates, 2015-2024
Source: IDC Page Volume Program, Baseline Scenario Forecast, June 2020.
In the near term, page volumes are expected to experience a sharp decline in every region this year due to the impact of COVID-19. The contraction will range from -7% to -17% with North America and Asia/Pacific (excluding China and Japan) expected to decline most dramatically, while China will have the most conservative reduction in print volume.
“The dramatic and sudden transition to work from home in many of the world’s largest economies had a direct impact on office device print volumes,” says Ilona Stankeova, senior research director, Imaging Devices & Document Solutions, IDC Europe. “More than 6 million pages were printed every minute globally in 2019. This amount covers the area of 54 football pitches. COVID-19 is expected to remove print volume that would fill the area of 7 football fields every minute in 2020.”
In addition to a baseline forecast, IDC provides forecasts based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the five-year CAGR for worldwide page volume will be -3.2%. In the pessimistic scenario, the worldwide page volume CAGR will be -6.6%. A graphic illustrating IDC’s page volume forecast for the optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios is available by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
“The decline of office print volume will have a big impact on total spending in the office print market,” says Eiji Ishida, group manager, Imaging, Printing and Document Solutions, IDC Japan. “Hardcopy peripherals vendors will be required to make bold changes to their strategies based on future workstyles in the next normal following the pandemic.”
IDC’s Page Volume Program
IDC’s Page Volume Program quantifies worldwide page volumes and install base (units) for home and office devices and includes segmentation by product (laser/inkjet), product detail (color/mono) product category (multifunction peripheral (MFP), single function printer, single function digital copier (SF DC)), device format (A2/A3, A4), speed, supplies type (OEM/non-OEM), The core program reports on seven geographic regions and is further customizable with country &/or custom region definitions. Company and brand share details are available for an additional fee. The core program includes a supplemental powerpoint which annotates key trends and provides qualitative market insights to help accelerate customer use of the dataset.
* Note: Office and home devices include laser printers, MFPs, and SF DCs with speed range of Color Laser 1-69ppm, Mono Laser 1-90ppm., Inkjet printers, and MFPs excluding High-speed inkjet.