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Mobile industry adds $100bn to sub-Saharan Africa GDP

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The mobile industry in Sub-Saharan Africa contributed more than US$100 billion to the region’s economy last year, according to a new GSMA study published at the ‘Mobile 360 Series – Africa’ conference recently held in Cape Town.

The new study, ‘The Mobile Economy – Sub-Saharan Africa 2015’, finds that the US$102 billion economic contribution in 2014 was equivalent to 5.7 per cent of the region’s GDP. Mobile operators directly contributed US$31 billion, representing 1.7 per cent of GDP. This economic contribution is set to increase over the coming years as mobile operators continue to extend connectivity to unconnected populations across the region and roll out new mobile broadband networks and services. The industry is forecast to contribute US$166 billion in value to the region by 2020, equivalent to 8 per cent of expected GDP by this point.

“The mobile industry remains a key driver of economic growth and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa, making a vital contribution given the population growth and high unemployment levels seen in many countries in the region,” said Alex Sinclair, Acting Director General and Chief Technology Officer at the GSMA. “Despite revenue and margin pressures, local mobile operators continue to invest heavily to extend network coverage to serve unconnected communities and accelerate the migration to high-speed 3G/4G mobile broadband networks. Mobile technology is also playing a central role in Sub-Saharan Africa by addressing a range of socio-economic challenges, particularly digital and financial inclusion, and enabling access to vital services such as education and healthcare.”

The World’s Fastest-Growing Mobile Region

It is forecast that there will be 386 million unique mobile subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of this year, equivalent to 41 per cent of the region’s population. The region’s subscriber base has grown by 13 per cent a year (CAGR), on average, during the first half of this decade (2010 to 2015), growing at more than twice the rate of the global average (6 per cent) during this period. The region overtook Latin America in 2014 to become the world’s third-largest mobile subscriber market, behind only Asia Pacific and Europe. The number of unique mobile subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to surpass half a billion (518 million) by 2020, representing almost one in two (49 per cent) of the region’s population by this point.

Total mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa are on track to reach 722 million by year-end. Mobile broadband (3G/4G) will account for almost a quarter of connections this year, but will increase to 57 per cent by 2020, driven by expanding mobile broadband network coverage and falling device costs. Commercial 3G networks have been launched in 41 countries across Sub-Saharan Africa as of June 2015, while 4G networks have been launched in 23 countries.

Investment in these high-speed networks is resulting in a corresponding growth in consumers using their devices to access the internet; almost a quarter (23 per cent) of the Sub-Saharan African population will be using the mobile internet this year, a figure forecast to rise to 37 per cent by 2020. Mobile is seen as the primary means of accessing the internet in a region where fixed-line infrastructure is severely limited.

The increasing availability of mobile broadband networks, alongside the introduction of affordable mobile data tariffs and falling device prices, has led to a surge in smartphone use. The smartphone adoption rate has doubled over the last two years and now accounts for one in five connections, though this is still half the global adoption average (40 per cent). It is predicted that regional smartphone connections will reach 540 million by 2020, accounting for half of total connections by that point. The report notes that the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has fallen significantly in most regional markets, with an increasing number of models now available in the sub-US$100 price range.

Investing In Jobs, Networks and Innovation

In 2014, the mobile ecosystem directly employed approximately 2 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the majority working in the distribution and retail sectors and approximately 325,000 employed by mobile operators. A further 2.4 million jobs were indirectly supported as result of the demand generated by the mobile sector, bringing the total to 4.4 million. It is forecast that the industry will grow to support more than 6 million jobs by 2020. The mobile ecosystem also made a contribution to the public finances of the region’s governments via general taxation of approximately US$15 billion in 2014.

Mobile operators in the region invested US$9 billion in network infrastructure development in 2014, a 16 per cent increase on the amount invested in 2013. The ongoing investment in mobile broadband networks will see capital investments reach US$13.6 billion by 2020.

The report highlights how mobile operators are working on innovative solutions to expand network coverage to underserved populations in rural and geographically remote areas, and to tackle the barriers to mobile phone adoption, including affordability and digital literacy. It also indicates that mobile operators, governments and international development organisations have been working on a range of mobile-based solutions to address a variety of social challenges in the region, many of which arise from lack of access to essential services, such as basic education and health.

“Mobile is having a hugely positive and transformative impact across Sub-Sahara Africa, but future progress will depend on governments working with the industry to provide a regulatory environment that encourages investment and innovation,” added Alex Sinclair.

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Earth 2050: memory chips for kids, telepathy for adults

An astonishing set of predictions for the next 30 years includes a major challenge to the privacy of our thoughts.

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Buy 2050, most kids may be fitted with the latest memory boosting implants, and adults will have replaced mobile devices with direct connectivity through brain implants, powered by thought.

These are some of the more dramatic forecasts in Earth 2050, an award-winning, interactive multimedia project that accumulates predictions about social and technological developments for the upcoming 30 years. The aim is to identify global challenges for humanity and possible ways of solving these challenges. The website was launched in 2017 to mark Kaspersky Lab’s 20th birthday. It comprises a rich variety of predictions and future scenarios, covering a wide range of topics.

Recently a number of new contributions have been added to the site. Among them Lord Martin Rees, the UK’s Astronomer Royal, Professor at Cambridge University and former President of the Royal Society; investor and entrepreneur Steven Hoffman, Peter Tatchell, human rights campaigner, along withDmitry Galov, security researcher and Alexey Malanov, malware analyst at Kaspersky Lab.

The new visions for 2050 consider, among other things:

  • The replacement of mobile devices with direct connectivity through brain implants, powered by thought – able to upload skills and knowledge in return – and the impact of this on individual consciousness and privacy of thought.
  • The ability to transform all life at the genetic level through gene editing.
  • The potential impact of mistakes made by advanced machine-learning systems/AI.
  • The demise of current political systems and the rise of ‘citizen governments’, where ordinary people are co-opted to approve legislation.
  • The end of the techno-industrial age as the world runs out of fossil fuels, leading to economic and environmental devastation.
  • The end of industrial-scale meat production, as most people become vegan and meat is cultured from biopsies taken from living, outdoor reared livestock.

The hypothetical prediction for 2050 from Dmitry Galov, security researcher at Kaspersky Lab is as follows: “By 2050, our knowledge of how the brain works, and our ability to enhance or repair it is so advanced that being able to remember everything and learn new things at an outrageous speed has become commonplace. Most kids are fitted with the latest memory boosting implants to support their learning and this makes education easier than it has ever been. 

“Brain damage as a result of head injury is easily repaired; memory loss is no longer a medical condition, and people suffering from mental illnesses, such as depression, are quickly cured.  The technologies that underpin this have existed in some form since the late 2010s. Memory implants are in fact a natural progression from the connected deep brain stimulation implants of 2018.

“But every technology has another side – a dark side. In 2050, the medical, social and economic impact of memory boosting implants are significant, but they are also vulnerable to exploitation and cyber-abuse. New threats that have appeared in the last decade include the mass manipulation of groups through implanted or erased memories of political events or conflicts, and even the creation of ‘human botnets’. 

“These botnets connect people’s brains into a network of agents controlled and operated by cybercriminals, without the knowledge of the victims themselves.  Repurposed cyberthreats from previous decades are targeting the memories of world leaders for cyber-espionage, as well as those of celebrities, ordinary people and businesses with the aim of memory theft, deletion of or ‘locking’ of memories (for example, in return for a ransom).  

“This landscape is only possible because, in the late 2010s when the technologies began to evolve, the potential future security vulnerabilities were not considered a priority, and the various players: healthcare, security, policy makers and more, didn’t come together to understand and address future risks.”

For more information and the full suite of inspirational and thought-provoking predictions, visit Earth 2050.

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Pizoelectrics: Healthcare’s new gymnasts of gadgetry

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Healthcare electronics is rapidly deploying for wellness, electroceuticals, and intrusive medical procedures, among other, powered by new technologies. Much of it is trending to diagnostics and treatment on the move, and removing the need for the patient to perform procedures on time. 

Instruments become wearables, including electronic skin patches and implants. The IDTechEx Research report, “Piezoelectric Harvesting and Sensing for Healthcare 2019-2029”, notes that sensors should preferably be self-powered, non-poisonous even on disposal, and many need to be biocompatible and even biodegradable. 

We need to detect biology, vibration, force, acceleration, stress and linear movement and do imaging. Devices must reject bacteria and be useful in wearables and Internet of Things nodes. Preferably we must move to one device performing multiple tasks. 

So is there a gymnast material category that has that awesome versatility? 

Piezoelectrics has a good claim. It measures all those parameters. That even includes biosensors where the piezo senses the swelling of a biomolecule recognizing a target analyte. The most important form of self-powered (one material, two functions) piezo sensing is ultrasound imaging, a market growing at 5.1% yearly. 

The IDTechEx Research report looks at what comes next, based on global travel and interviewing by its PhD level analysts in 2018 with continuous updates.  

Click here to read how Piezo has been reinvented.

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